Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260737
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
237 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE KEY TO CHANCES OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. AT THIS TIME
THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER WILL BE JUST BELOW 3000FT AGL BASED
ON THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE DEPTH OF THIS MOIST LAYER
WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 THAN EAST SO GIVEN
THIS WILL FAVOR KEEPING A MENTION OF DRIZZLE GOING NEAR AND WEST
OF DODGE CITY TODAY. IN ADDITION 700MB TO 500MB LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 8C/KM AS A WEAK 400MB POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS
MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE LIFT ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAINSHOWERS DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SO HAVE
KEPT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OR LESS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

AFTER 00Z MONDAY ANOTHER, STRONGER, UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND APPROACH SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND IMPROVING LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
NEXT UPPER WAVE EARLY TONIGHT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TO OCCUR, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER. CURRENTLY AM CONCERNED ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE 700MB TO
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE AND THE SLIGHTLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. GIVEN THIS TREND ALONG WITH WHERE THE BETTER
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER
SOUTH THE HIGHEST FOR OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING FROM FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR SOUTH OF HAYS. WILL RANGE
RAIN CHANCES FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT AT HAYS TO 60 AT DODGE CITY
AND AROUND 90 PERCENT AT LIBERAL AND ELKHART. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY, WITH OVER AN INCH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
DODGE CITY. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 40S THERE, TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S EAST OF DODGE
CITY.

FOR TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE
NEW ECMWF HAS THE LOW MOVING OUT MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS AND
CANADIAN. WILL CONTINUE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING FROM NEAR
DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FROM 39 WEST TO
THE MID 40S OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE
40S TO THE 50S. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY TO
AROUND 80 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY TONIGHT SHOWING LIFR
CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BASED ON
LOWERING CEILINGS FROM THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, 00Z NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS, ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR THE CEILINGS WILL
FALL INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY BY 06Z SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN BELOW
500FT AGL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
GIVEN THAT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  42  53  41 /  20  60  60  30
GCK  53  43  49  40 /  30  50  60  20
EHA  54  41  46  39 /  50  90  90  40
LBL  57  45  48  41 /  30  80  90  50
HYS  54  41  58  40 /  20  20  30  20
P28  65  48  56  44 /  10  70  70  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT



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