Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 050749
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
249 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEVELOP LINE CLUSTERS OR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER TODAY, WITH THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTION MAINLY AFTER 22 UTC, WHICH MAY BE LARGELY DUE TO
INCREASING SBCAPE AND MUCAPES ALONG A MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
AXIS. A GENERAL LACK OF STRONG SHEAR AND VERY STRONG CAPE SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THESE STORMS THIS EVENING, HOWEVER
SOME BRIEF DIME TO NICKEL HAIL SWATHS COULD OCCUR WITH STRONG GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
MODELS BRING A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY GENERATING
LOCALIZED STRONG LIFT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE RECENT
ECMWF AN NAM RUNS HAVE FOCUSED THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FARTHER
WEST, AND QPF AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED AS SUCH HOWEVER HIGH POPS WILL
EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIKELY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS THE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE STORMS WILL ALSO END. BY
LATER AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE NEAR AND EAST
OF DODGE CITY AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY AT 25 TO 40 MPH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 22
MPH. SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALSO FORM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S,
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EAST.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BROADSCALE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, NEAR DODGE CITY, AND EAST. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

FOR SATURDAY, A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AHEAD OF
THE WAVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE NEW ECMWF DISAGREES AND
HAS THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AT ANY RATE WHEREVER THIS WARM FRONT WILL FORM
WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ROTATING
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES, WITH LOTS OF LOW TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL
SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE WARM FRONT RESIDES, AND BE MAINLY IN THE 70S.

FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE STRONG
WAVE ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS MAINLY EAST OF WESTERN
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70. LOWS COULD DROP BACK INTO THE 40S
ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A 3 TO 5 HOUR
BREAK CENTERED AROUND ROUGHLY 09-13Z OR SO BEFORE THE NEXT MAJOR
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION AFFECTS THE GCK AND DDC TERMINALS. THE RAIN
ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERY IN NATURE WITHOUT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION, SO WE ARE KEEPING THUNDER OUT OF THE
TERMINALS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY. THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY OUTSIDE
OF PRECIPITATION AREAS WILL BE VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  60  81  58 /  70  60  30  20
GCK  66  57  81  53 /  90  50  20  10
EHA  69  53  81  51 /  90  60  10  10
LBL  68  57  83  56 /  90  50  10  10
HYS  71  59  78  58 /  60  70  50  50
P28  74  61  79  62 /  80  80  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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