Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 011112
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
APPROACHING NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH MONTANA.
THIS WILL BRING A FRONT DOWN THROUGH NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF THIS LOW
THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE
TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, THOUGH, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME DEEPLY
MIXED, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
LOWERING OF CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL. MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, AND THE 0-6KM DEEP LAYER
SHEAR CERTAINLY JUSTIFIES ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS WELL, BUT THE
PROBABILITY FOR A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE
MITIGATING FACTORS OF A DEEPLY MIXED ATMOSPHERE AND MARGINAL WINDS
IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. THE GREATEST CONCERN MAY ACTUALLY BE WEST
OF THE DRYLINE, AS ALL THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A CONVECTIVE SIGNAL
AMIDST EXTREMELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALL THE WAY THROUGH 400MB.
DESPITE A SURFACE PARCEL OF ABOUT 83/30F, THE FAIRLY COOL MID LEVELS
RESULT IN A LIFTED PARCEL WITH SOME CAPE OF ABOUT 200-400 J/KG.
DOWNDRAFT CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL EXIST WEST OF THE DRYLINE,
AND THIS WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME SEVERE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS
OUT WEST WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. EAST OF THE DRYLINE, IT MAY
TAKE AWHILE FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION TO BECOME ESTABLISHED, BUT
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT AREAS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WILL SEE SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE 23-03Z TIME FRAME THIS
EVENING. THE BEST HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 183
WHERE SOME HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORM. ALL CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING QUICKLY SOUTH IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME WILL EXIST THURSDAY INTO EARLY ON
FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPECIFICALLY, A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIP EASTWARD THROUGH THE
GREAT PLAINS ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED 120 KT JET STREAK NOSING INTO
KANSAS. THE INDIRECT CIRCULATION AT THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET
STREAK WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT TO INITIALLY SLOW THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

ANY DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW THIS BOUNDARY OUT OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THIS SLOWED FRONTAL
PROGRESSION WILL ALSO ALLOW THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL
NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO INTERACT WITH THE EXIT REGION OF
THE JET STREAK. THIS WILL BRING A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG
750-700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND EXTENDING
NORTHEAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRIPE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT FROM THIS FORCING AND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS LACKING BEHIND THIS
FRONT...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 1-2 KM SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO
BRING A RAIN...SNOW MIXTURE AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 56 ALTHOUGH WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 THURSDAY WHILE 50S PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

THIS COMING EASTER WEEKEND AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE
A VERY QUIET PATTERN RETURN TO MOST OF KANSAS AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LEE TROUGH TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
UNDER THIS SETUP WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS VIA HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ONE POTENTIAL SCENARIO THAT MAY BRING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
BELT OF POSITIVE THETA/E ADVECTION AT 800-850 HPA MAY TRIGGER SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION AFTER DARK. OTHERWISE DRY AND QUIET WILL BE
THE THEME THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A SMALL BUT POTENT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS
LATER TODAY WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE QUESTION AT
HAND IS HOW WIDESPREAD ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AS MOST STORMS
SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS EQUATES TO A VICINITY
MENTION AT BEST RIGHT NOW. OTHERWISE, GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH BY MID EVENING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  45  66  39 /  40  40  10  30
GCK  88  41  65  35 /  20  20  10  50
EHA  86  42  66  36 /  30  10  10  30
LBL  89  44  68  39 /  20  20  10  30
HYS  87  43  65  35 /  50  50  10  50
P28  88  51  71  45 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...AJOHNSON


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