Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND
45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO DRAW 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG SOUTH
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE, HOWEVER A WEAK CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
WARMING. GIVEN THIS WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEING IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, A BROAD RIDGE ON THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS LOW, A VERY WARM DOWNSLOPE AIRMASS WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES (BY APRIL
1ST STANDARDS). WE HAVE INCREASED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD TO THE
UPPER 80S, WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF 90-DEGREE READINGS SOMEWHERE
FROM GARDEN CITY TO LIBERAL OR THEREABOUTS.

THE WESTERLY MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON, SO THE MORNING ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH EAST ON SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE PUSHING EAST, THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND CONFINED MAINLY
TO CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD. A DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DRYLINE
STORM MAY FORM SOMEWHERE FROM GREENSBURG SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SHOULD A DRYLINE STORM FORM WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. GETTING A
STORM IN THE FIRST PLACE WILL BE QUITE THE OBSTACLE WITH VERY WARM
700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE (VERY WARM FOR THE FIRST
OF APRIL).

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES 15 TO PERHAPS 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVERHEAD LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION. 20-30 POPS ARE IN ORDER AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS EVEN COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 50S MUCH OF
THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY 21Z
MONDAY, AND THEN FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 00Z TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN ONLY HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  82  53  85 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  39  82  50  87 /   0  10  10  20
EHA  44  82  50  85 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  42  83  52  87 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  40  79  53  84 /   0   0  10  30
P28  46  84  55  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT



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