Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 041934
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
234 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL HAVE GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DRAW IN
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF UPPER 50S INTO A MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH, BY MID AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
TO EXTEND FROM NEAR ELKHART NORTHEASTWARD TO ROUGHLY GARDEN CITY UP
TO NESS CITY-WAKEENEY-HAYS AREAS. THIS IS THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST POPS WILL ALSO BE ACROSS
THIS AREA WITH 70 TO 90 POPS IN THE GRIDS. 0-6KM AGL SHEAR WILL BE A
BIT GREATER FARTHER NORTH WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MORE BACKED.
 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE STILL GOING TO BE VERY ANEMIC WITH
250MB WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS, SO THIS WILL PRESENT A PROBLEM FOR
PRECIPITATION EVACUATION FROM UPDRAFTS, WHICH COULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE.
THAT SAID, MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE OF GOLFBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST, MARGINAL SUPERCELL STORMS WHICH COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHERE THE LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR WILL BE HIGHEST. BY
THIS EVENING, THE NAM12 SUGGESTS THE CLOUD-BEARING FLOW AND 1KM AGL
FLOW WILL BOTH BE OF SOME VARIATION FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF BACKWARD PROPAGATING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING,
PERHAPS. BY THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD, THE SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE APPROACHING WEST TEXAS, AND WILL BE
PUTTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN A BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE ZONE OF FORCING
FOR ASCENT. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY 12Z TUESDAY...AND POPS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH AT THIS
TIME FROM 70 TO 90 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIKELY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS THE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE STORMS WILL ALSO END. BY
LATER AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE NEAR AND EAST
OF DODGE CITY AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY AT 25 TO 40 MPH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 22
MPH. SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALSO FORM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S,
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EAST.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BROADSCALE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, NEAR DODGE CITY, AND EAST. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

FOR SATURDAY, A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AHEAD OF
THE WAVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE NEW ECMWF DISAGREES AND
HAS THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AT ANY RATE WHEREVER THIS WARM FRONT WILL FORM
WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ROTATING
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES, WITH LOTS OF LOW TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL
SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE WARM FRONT RESIDES, AND BE MAINLY IN THE 70S.

FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE STRONG
WAVE ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS MAINLY EAST OF WESTERN
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70. LOWS COULD DROP BACK INTO THE 40S
ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CONVECTION IS LIKELY NEAR THE HYS TERMINAL (POSSIBLY NEAR GCK AS
WELL) BETWEEN 23 AND 03 UTC, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LIFT NORTH WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, PROVIDING ADEQUATE LIFT FOR RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE STRONGEST CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE GCK TERMINAL BETWEEN 12
AND 15 UTC, WEAKENING FARTHER NORTH. CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT
WITH A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT PROBABLY BE LOWEST DURING THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  69  57  80 /  80  70  70  30
GCK  55  67  55  79 /  90  90  60  20
EHA  53  69  51  80 /  80  90  50  20
LBL  56  69  56  82 /  90  90  60  20
HYS  57  71  58  78 /  80  60  70  40
P28  59  75  60  78 /  30  80  90  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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