Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 310903
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
403 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP + RAP ANALYSIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REVEALED
A SPLIT JET SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH RIDGING
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE, AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM
CLOUD SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WESTERN KANSAS WAS INFLUENCED
BY A FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH WAS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE REALLY WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WILL DISSOLVE COMPLETELY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT, THIS WILL OPEN
THE FLOODGATES TO SOME FAIRLY ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO
KANSAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER-MID 50S,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME VERY LOW STRATUS AND/OR AREAS OF
FOG. WE WILL KEEP THE FOG MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT
THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO TODAY, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE ARE FORECAST,
WHICH IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE MILD WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR, IF NOT THE
ABSOLUTE WARMEST WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ANS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KS, DRAWING A
COLORADO AIRMASS DOWNSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN KS AND PROMOTING STRONG
ADIABATIC WARMING IN  ADDITION TOP STRONG INSOLATION. AT THIS TIME
EVEN THE BLEND SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH PROBABLY SUGGESTS 90 DEGREES MIGHT
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE RED HILLS REGION. OVERALL THE AREA
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE LATE, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE REGION, AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES STRONG. FOR
THIS REASON, WE`VE LEFT THE POPS UNCHANGED IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MOREOVER THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION COULD START MUCH EARLIER ALONG THE
DIFFUSE DRYLINE AND BETTER MOISTURE ZONE, WHICH WOULD LEND ITSELF
TO A FAVORED CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL. 850-500 MB
MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY 30+ KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR MAY SPAWN A FEW MAINLY HAIL PRODUCING SUPERCELLS EAST
OF A WAKEENEY TO GARDEN LINE. A LIMITED PORTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
IS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.

DIURNAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY INFLUENCED BY COLD ADVECTION, CLOUDS AND
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL FAR WEST,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
RESPECT TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY SNOW DEVELOPING WOULD BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE WET BULB COOLING. THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER  JET SHOULD INTERSECT A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, PROMOTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND THUS
INCREASED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FAIRLY TRANQUIL AVIATION WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
EASTERLY WIND BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12 TO 15 KNOTS. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DRAW UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING (A LITTLE BIT BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD).


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO OCCUR. A DRY AIRMASS
WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES  TO SOAR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PLUMMET TO
20 PERCENT AND LOWER. SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WELL CURED FUELS ARE STILL FOUND. THE LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY IS FOCUSED REALLY ONLY ON WIND SPEEDS WHICH AT THIS TIME
DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINES.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY BEARS WATCHING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  53  85  47 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  81  50  87  45 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  82  50  85  45 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  82  52  87  46 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  79  53  84  45 /   0  10  30  30
P28  84  55  84  53 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
FIRE WEATHER...RUSSELL


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