Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 011730
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN H5 VORT MAXIMA
EJECTING OFF THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE SCALE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH LESS THAN ROBUST, A STRONG ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, THE NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT. AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY BACK DOWN INTO THE
50S(F). ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS FURTHER NORTHWARD ALLOWING WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO RE-ENGAGE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WIDESPREAD 80S(F)
ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL THINKING REGARDING NEXT
WEEK`S PRECIPITATION EVENT. THERE ARE STILL VERY STRONG SIGNALS OF A
PROLONGED PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS,
INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IN FACT, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL TO
ACCUMULATE BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AMPLE GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH A FORMIDABLE STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE BEST TIME FRAME
FOR THE MOST ABUNDANT RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY
NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE-INCH IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. THE
LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A 1.5 TO 2-INCH HIT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FOR THE 48-HR PERIOD ENDING 18Z
WEDNESDAY.

THE SEVERE WEATHER COMPONENT TO ALL THIS IS A LITTLE LESS CLEAR. WE
WILL SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST ZONES AS SOME
OF THE INITIAL DECENT MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE ANEMIC AS WELL. SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WILL INCREASE, MARGINALLY, ON MONDAY AS THE POLAR FRONT EDGES
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT, CAPE WILL
INCREASE TO THE TUNE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OR SO, BUT THE SHEAR
PROFILE WILL STILL BE QUITE POOR WITH SOUTHWEST 500MB FLOW ONLY IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW NOT MUCH
BETTER.

HEADING IN TO TUESDAY, DEEPER, RICH MOISTURE WILL REALLY SPREAD INTO
THE AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH MORE CLOUD COVER, LIKELY
LIMITING INSOLATION. SEVERE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY, AT THIS TIME,
LOOKS QUITE LOW, BUT THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER BEING
FORECAST BY THE GFS CERTAINLY SUPPORTS THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE F120 GFS40 VALID 00Z WED SHOWS AROUND 1.25
INCH PW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS ABOVE
THE MAX MOVING AVERAGE LINE FOR THAT DATE (REF SPC SOUNDING CLIMO
PAGE FOR DDC) AND ABOUT WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR LATE JULY AROUND
HERE.  ON WEDNESDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT,
AND THE DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM BEHIND THIS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY
ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SETUP, WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH FLOW WILL ALSO BE BETTER BY
THEN, SO WE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO WATCH THIS DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST, FOR SEVERE WX POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE AND A RELOADING OF THE TROUGH OUT WEST, THE
DRYLINE WILL REMAIN A FEATURE OF INTEREST GOING INTO LATE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  IT IS CERTAINLY LOOKING LIKE QUITE THE
INTERESTING PATTERN COMING UP NEXT WEEK, METEOROLOGICALLY
SPEAKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A NEAR-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
UP TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  55  85  57 /  10  20  10  10
GCK  80  54  85  55 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  82  52  85  56 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  82  53  87  57 /  10  20  10  10
HYS  77  55  85  56 /  20  20  10  10
P28  80  56  85  59 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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