Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240758
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WAS ALSO PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 30- 40 KNOTS
OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER BUT ABOVE THIS LAYER, STRONGER SHEAR
WAS IN PLACE IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. THE STORMS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
ROTATING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRONG EVACUATION ALOFT, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND JOHNSON AND
SYRACUSE AND POINTS NORTH THIS EVENING AROUND 23Z-01Z AND HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES IN THAT AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES, AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WHICH COULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND/OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND 156. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ELEVATED HAILERS. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST WHILE A DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE 18Z MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE BETTER 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DODGE CITY CWFA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SOME GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR, AS SURFACE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE LOW.
SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMES AN IMPACT IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE STORMS THE LARGE HAIL (2 TO 3
INCH DIAMETER) AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS MAINLY AFFECTING THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IN THE MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  49  78  47 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  77  48  77  47 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  76  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  80  48  81  49 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  73  50  73  45 /  40  40  10  20
P28  82  52  80  50 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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