Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260517
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1217 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AT 00Z SUNDAY A +100KT 250MB JET WAS LOCATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO
EASTERN WASHINGTON. EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A WEAK 500MB
RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WAS A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ONE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z SUNDAY APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHILE ANOTHER BOUNDARY APPEARS TO EXTEND
FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. BEHIND THIS SECOND
BOUNDARY COOLER AIR WAS PRESENT AT THE SURFACE AND THE 850MB LEVEL
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TRAVERSED THE CENTRAL PLAINS
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST, SHIFTING THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST AXIS EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS HAD RESULT IN
DOWNSLOPE WARMING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. SOME COLD ADVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. SOME CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE; AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS THROUGH THE EVENING.  THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, A
COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEBRASKA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KANSAS, WITH UPSLOPE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING. THIS COOLER UPSTREAM AIRMASS WAS ALREADY MOIST, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THEREFORE, AS THIS AIR MOVES UP SLOPE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS WILL RESULT. IN
ADDITION, THE MOIST LAYER WILL APPROACH 1 KM IN DEPTH, WHICH WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM
GARDEN CITY AND SCOTT CITY WESTWARD TO THE COLORADO BORDER. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES EVEN CLOSER AND
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN SUPPRESSED
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL SURFACE. HOWEVER, ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER 7 PM
SUNDAY, SO THAT THE DETAILS OF THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUDY AIRMASS OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER, WITH 50S ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS, AND SOME
60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING FROM FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR OR SOUTH OF HAYS. WILL RANGE
RAIN CHANCES FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT AT HAYS TO 60 AT DODGE CITY
AND AROUND 90 PERCENT AT LIBERAL AND ELKHART. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY, WITH OVER AN INCH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
DODGE CITY. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 40S THERE, TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S EAST OF DODGE
CITY.

FOR TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE
NEW ECMWF HAS THE LOW MOVING OUT MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS AND
CANADIAN. WILL CONTINUE WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING FROM NEAR
DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FROM 39 WEST TO
THE MID 40S OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL WARM FROM THE
40S TO THE 50S. HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY TO
AROUND 80 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY TONIGHT SHOWING LIFR
CEILINGS SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BASED ON
LOWERING CEILINGS FROM THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, 00Z NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS, ALONG WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR THE CEILINGS WILL
FALL INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY BY 06Z SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN BELOW
500FT AGL THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. VISIBILITIES
SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
GIVEN THAT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  53  41  64 /  60  60  30  20
GCK  43  49  40  65 /  60  60  20  10
EHA  41  46  39  61 /  90  90  40  10
LBL  45  48  41  62 /  80  90  50  20
HYS  41  58  40  67 /  30  30  20  10
P28  48  56  44  65 /  60  70  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT


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