Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251945
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TRAVERSED THE CENTRAL PLAINS
YESTERDAY HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST, SHIFTING THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST AXIS EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS HAD RESULT IN
DOWNSLOPE WARMING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. SOME COLD ADVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, A COOLER AIRMASS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEBRASKA WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
KANSAS, WITH UPSLOPE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. THIS
COOLER UPSTREAM AIRMASS WAS ALREADY MOIST, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THEREFORE, AS THIS AIR MOVES UP SLOPE INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS, EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS WILL RESULT. IN ADDITION, THE
MOIST LAYER WILL APPROACH 1 KM IN DEPTH, WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM GARDEN
CITY AND SCOTT CITY WESTWARD TO THE COLORADO BORDER. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES EVEN CLOSER AND
BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN
SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL SURFACE.
HOWEVER, ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
JUST AFTER 7 PM SUNDAY, SO THAT THE DETAILS OF THIS WILL BE
DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE CLOUDY
AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY
RISE A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, WITH 50S ACROSS MOST OF
WESTERN KANSAS, AND SOME 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH A LACK OF
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AS WELL, WHICH APPEARS WELL AGREED UPON
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS AT THIS TIME. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEWS SHOW A SATURATED LOWEST 1000-2500 FT WHILE
CAPPED BY A DRY LAYER ABOVE ABOUT THE 800 MB LEVEL. AL IN ALL A
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY WITH POSSIBLY PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY  LATER IN
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

NAM/ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL TAKE THE 500 MB LOW TRACK THROUGH
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. THAT TRACK WILL PUT THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA ON COLD CONVEYOR BELT/ AND UPPER
DEFORMATION AXIS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION FROM CLOUDY
AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE CONDITIONS RAIN SHOWERS AN POTENTIALLY A PERIOD
OF RAIN AND STRONGER CONVECTION IS LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE LAST BLEND SOLUTION INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR
THESE AREAS. SUCH A PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTH
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED.

BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BEYOND MONDAY WITH LITTLE OBVIOUS
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION . TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A
WARMING TREND. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS AND MODEL BLEND HIGHS ARE
FORECAST AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL, BUT WARMING TO THE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 05Z WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
EAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 05 AND 08Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KGCK/KDDC
AFTER 12Z AS THE MOIST LAYER DEEPENS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  57  43  54 /  20  20  60  60
GCK  48  54  43  53 /  20  30  60  60
EHA  48  54  43  49 /  40  40  80  90
LBL  50  56  45  51 /  20  30  80  90
HYS  46  56  42  58 /  20  20  30  30
P28  49  66  47  56 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...FINCH


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