Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 162312
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

IN THE SHORT TERM, A FEW (2-3) ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH HE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
THE FIRST ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NESTED 4 KM NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE GENERALLY AGREED ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BETWEEN AROUND 2 AND 4 PM, AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO A
MULTICELLULAR LINE AFTER AN HOUR OR SO OF SLOWER GROWING DISCREET
CELLS. THE INITIAL ROTATING STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED OR LINEAR,
PRESENTING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER HAIL THREAT AND STILL DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 283 AND 183 CORRIDORS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD BE INTERFERED WITH BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY STILL ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A CONTINUED HAIL IF NOT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
SOME BL STABILITY SHOULD HINDER THE WIND THREAT. THE DYNAMICS OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE REGION OF FRIDAY, BUT
NOT BEFORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES
TO YET ANOTHER SEVERE EPISODE WITH AS GOOD OR BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
COMBINATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING THE NAM AND
GFS, AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY THE POPS WERE RAISED LOWERED FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASED ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL THEN DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS.
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WILL VARY FROM VFR TO IFR AS AREAS OF
CONVECTION CROSSES EACH OF THE TAF SITES. WILL INITIALLY BE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CEILINGS EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS
THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TOWARDS DAYBREAK THERE WILL THEN BE A
CHANCE FOR AREAS OF STATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND. CEILINGS WILL THEN IMPROVE BY
LATE MORNINGS AS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  71  47  69 /  80  60  60  30
GCK  53  71  43  69 /  80  50  60  30
EHA  47  71  42  66 /  70  30  30  20
LBL  50  73  43  69 /  80  40  40  30
HYS  56  71  50  71 /  70  60  60  50
P28  58  72  55  72 /  80  60  60  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURGERT


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.