Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 142319
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
619 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

TONIGHT: A FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE, A LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO DEEPEN
FURTHER ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY STAY MIXED ENOUGH TO
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM ENTERING THE UPPER 30S.  THE ONE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE FARTHER NORTHEAST UP AROUND HAYS WHERE SOME UPPER 30S WILL
OCCUR WITH WIND SPEEDS 6 TO 9 KNOTS. THE OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AS SOME MARGINAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THE NAM AND WRF-NMMB
SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF FOG, BUT SYNOPTICALLY, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A FAVORABLE FOG FORMATION ENVIRONMENT WITH WINDS STAYING UP IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH, AS
WELL AS THE ABSENCE OF STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DEEP MOISTURE
RETURN. A BAND OF LOW STRATUS MAY FORM WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 AFTER 09Z.

TOMORROW: SHOULD THERE BE ANY STRATUS EARLY IN THE MORNING, IT WILL
SCATTER OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE UTAH-COLORADO BORDER. A
LOW WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE LEESIDE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON AS A
SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM SURGE FORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO THE
WESTERN TEXAS-OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WE WILL START INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES NEAR LEE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRYLINE.
THE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
DEWPOINTS ONLY UP INTO THE 43 TO 46F RANGE. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURE WILL BE VERY COLD WITH 500MB TEMPS DOWN TO -17 TO -19C
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF 800 TO 1300
J/KG CAPE. THE BEST AREA OF SURFACE FRONTOGENESIS FOR SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHWEST
KANSAS, WHERE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY TWO OUTLOOK SHOWS A
15 PERCENT/SLIGHT RISK ACROSS FAR WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER OF INTEREST/IMPACT WILL BE IN THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, BEGINNING WITH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE NAM/AND WRF CORES AS WELL AS THE GFS/EC TO A CERTAIN
EXTENT ARE IN AGREEMENT OF LATE DAY CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A
SURFACE TROUGH/DIFFUSE DRYLINE REGION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST KANSAS, IN A REGION OF MODERATE CAPE AND SUPERCELL
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ANY DISCREET STORMS OR CLUSTERS THAT
DEVELOP ARE FAVORED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY
THE MID EVENING HOURS. THE SET UP WOULD FAVOR HAIL TO AROUND GOLF
BALLS WITH LHP VALUES AROUND 4. FARTHER, SOUTH, A FEW STORMS COULD
FORM AS WELL, IN A SEEMINGLY LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER JET NOSE. THURSDAY BRINGS MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN THAT CURRENTLY THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN FAVOR OF
MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS THAN THE MOS, AND MAY BE OVERDOING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN. NEVERTHELESS, INCREASING FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ONGOING INTO
LATE DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, PROMOTING SHOWERS AND WEAK
STORMS IN AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE/UPPER DIFFLUENCE REGION.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE FAVORED TIMEFRAME
FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME CLOSED OFF ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL PRESENT MORE OF A COLD CORE RAIN/DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIP TYPE OF EVENT FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND, A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SHOULD DEVELOP RENDERING
DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS. ANOTHER WAVE IS NOTED
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OR SHOWERS OR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THE 18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATED A SHALLOW DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AT DDC
AND GCK TOWARDS DAYBREAK. GIVEN WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT DO NOT
THINK DENSE FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE BUT SO WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. IN ADDITION TO THIS MVFR FOG NEAR GCK
TOWARDS DAYBREAK THE RAP,HRRR, AND ARW HINTS AT SOME STATUS
DEVELOPING ALSO AT OR BELOW 1000FT AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  71  48  68 /  10  10  50  50
GCK  42  74  45  64 /  10  20  40  50
EHA  43  76  42  64 /  10  20  30  40
LBL  42  78  46  68 /  10  20  40  40
HYS  39  69  48  66 /  10  10  50  50
P28  42  71  52  71 /  10  10  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT



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