Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301718
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1218 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 852 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. NEAR THE
SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD AS TIME
PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY
THEN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW LEE
TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
FELT THROUGHOUT WESTERN KANSAS. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ABOVE
WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE VERY DRY TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN HELP PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH NEBRASKA THIS EVENING THEN INTO NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THIS OCCURS WITH INCREASED CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE, BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THIS AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE
LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME WILL EMERGE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS...THANKS TO A CONTINUED ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL
JET. UNTIL THEN, THIS WEEKEND, THE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. THE SUSTAINED DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM WILL
LEAD TO A FURTHER WARMING OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE, WHICH WILL ALLOW
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WERE
CONSTRICTED TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER, AND EVEN THAT
DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT GREAT, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LACK OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WE WILL FINALLY SEE SOME GULF MOISTURE
WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD, AND BY LATE AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY ERUPT ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHWEST/FAR
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. A SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) MAY
THRIVE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS
(PER LATEST ECMWF RUN). HIGHEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THIS
AREA.

AS A NORTHERN POLAR JET SYSTEM EXITS THE UPPER MIDWEST, THE POLAR
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEPER INTO KANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME, A
ROBUST SUBTROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN BAJA
WITH JET ENERGY ENTERING THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHWEST
MOMENTUM WILL REACH SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WHICH WILL AID IN HALTING THE
FRONT. AS THIS IS HAPPENING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AND INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE. IF THERE IS ONE DAY IN THE WHOLE LONG TERM PERIOD THAT
STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A DECENT
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL KANSAS REGION, IT WOULD
PROBABLY BE MONDAY, AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARM
WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INHIBITING MID-LEVEL (500-700MB)
SATURATION. A FAIRLY LARGE AREAL EXTENT OF CAPE WITH DECENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AS WE HEAD IN TO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REALLY INCREASE, WITH MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE, INCLUDING THE MID-
LEVELS. THIS SHOULD ACTUALLY ACT TO REDUCE THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
GIVEN AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER, COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
TEMPERATURES (AS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF WITH +11 TO +13C 850MB
TEMPERATURES). THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH
CYCLONE CLOSING OFF AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY, BUT EVENTUALLY THE CHANCES WILL CUT OFF AS WE EVENTUALLY
ENTER THE DRY INTRUSION OF THE EJECTING CYCLONE.

FOR A DAY 5-7 FORECAST, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VERY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. KEEP UP TO DATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST THINKING, HOWEVER, AS THE DAILY AND SUB-
DAILY DETAILS EMERGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 25KT WILL
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE TROUGH
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BEGINS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS BEFORE STALLING OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  50  80  55 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  83  50  80  54 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  84  52  82  52 /   0   0  20  10
LBL  84  50  82  54 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  81  48  77  55 /   0  10  10  10
P28  81  50  80  56 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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