Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 052025
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
325 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD,
THE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING OVER THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY
ALLOW HIGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. DUE TO LIMITED CAPE, THESE ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
MUCH TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER, WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO HIGH
50S ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER, AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AT HAYS
AND PRATT.

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD WILL CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN KANSAS UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD SURFACE
HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A DRYLINE (MOST LIKELY NEAR OR EAST OF DODGE CITY) AND THEN
PROGRESS EASTWARD. THEREFORE, PLACES SUCH AS PRATT, LARNED,
STAFFORD AND HAYS HAVE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE; BUT THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS. HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL
SIZE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
NICELY INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR LOCATIONS BEHIND THE
DRYLINE, WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FARTHER EAST AND NORTH.



.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIKELY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS THE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE STORMS WILL ALSO END. BY
LATER AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE NEAR AND EAST
OF DODGE CITY AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY AT 25 TO 40 MPH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 22
MPH. SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALSO FORM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S,
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EAST.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BROADSCALE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, NEAR DODGE CITY, AND EAST. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

FOR SATURDAY, A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AHEAD OF
THE WAVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE NEW ECMWF DISAGREES AND
HAS THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AT ANY RATE WHEREVER THIS WARM FRONT WILL FORM
WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ROTATING
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES, WITH LOTS OF LOW TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL
SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE WARM FRONT RESIDES, AND BE MAINLY IN THE 70S.

FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE STRONG
WAVE ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS MAINLY EAST OF WESTERN
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70. LOWS COULD DROP BACK INTO THE 40S
ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, RESULTING IN CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR/LIFR TONIGHT.
AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND LINGERING INTO PART OF TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  81  59  80 /  80  20  20  50
GCK  57  81  53  79 /  60  20  10  40
EHA  56  81  51  79 /  40  10  10  40
LBL  59  83  54  81 /  70  10  10  40
HYS  59  78  58  79 /  70  50  50  40
P28  62  79  63  80 /  70  30  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...FINCH


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