Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 042300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A STATIONARY FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW KS THOUGH NRN
MISSOURI WAS SEPARATING AIRMASSES WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS TO
THE SOUTH AND COOLER MOIST/LOWER CLOUD BASE CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS WERE ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO THE COOLER
AIR, WHILE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, AT THE EDGE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT, ALL WITH SLOW NORTHEAST STORM MOTIONS. ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE,  THE UPPER LOW WAS APPROACHING WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEVELOP LINE CLUSTERS OR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER TODAY, WITH THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTION MAINLY AFTER 22 UTC, WHICH MAY BE LARGELY DUE TO
INCREASING SBCAPE AND MUCAPES ALONG A MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
AXIS. A GENERAL LACK OF STRONG SHEAR AND VERY STRONG CAPE SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THESE STORMS THIS EVENING, HOWEVER
SOME BRIEF DIME TO NICKEL HAIL SWATHS COULD OCCUR WITH STRONG GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
MODELS BRING A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY GENERATING
LOCALIZED STRONG LIFT INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE RECENT
ECMWF AN NAM RUNS HAVE FOCUSED THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FARTHER
WEST, AND QPF AMOUNTS WERE ADJUSTED AS SUCH HOWEVER HIGH POPS WILL
EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIKELY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS THE WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE STORMS WILL ALSO END. BY
LATER AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE NEAR AND EAST
OF DODGE CITY AND INTO THE EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO BE GUSTY AT 25 TO 40 MPH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 22
MPH. SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALSO FORM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S,
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EAST.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BROADSCALE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, NEAR DODGE CITY, AND EAST. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

FOR SATURDAY, A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AHEAD OF
THE WAVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE NEW ECMWF DISAGREES AND
HAS THE WARM FRONT SOUTH OF KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AT ANY RATE WHEREVER THIS WARM FRONT WILL FORM
WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ROTATING
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES, WITH LOTS OF LOW TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL
SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE WARM FRONT RESIDES, AND BE MAINLY IN THE 70S.

FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE STRONG
WAVE ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS MAINLY EAST OF WESTERN
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70. LOWS COULD DROP BACK INTO THE 40S
ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CIGS WILL BE VFR TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL MAINLY IMPACT KHYS THIS EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATION
LIFT FOR CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH BROAD LIFT EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REGION. HERE, IFR CIGS BY AM WILL BE LIKELY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR POSSIBLE BY 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING OF THE SHOWERS
AND FLIGHT IMPACTS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY 10-15 KT TONIGHT, EXCEPT
ENE BY KHYS NEAR FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  68  60  82 /  70  70  60  30
GCK  55  66  57  83 /  90  90  50  20
EHA  53  69  53  82 /  80  90  60  10
LBL  56  68  57  85 /  90  90  50  10
HYS  57  71  59  78 /  70  60  70  40
P28  59  74  61  78 /  40  80  80  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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