Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241735
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE SHORT-FUSE SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE AT MIDDAY WAS SHOWING A
THREAT AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WAS
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS AS OF 16Z. A SYNOPTIC DRY
INTRUSION/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD, SHUNTING
THE SURFACE-BASED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP TOWARD THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. BY 21Z, THE HRRR INDICATES DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 20-21Z. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMPLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY
TO INGEST INTO AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL STORM. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT LONG-TRACK UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNAL, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THE
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE UP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXITING OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTY) BY AS SOON AS
23Z. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BENT-BACK REGION OF ENHANCED
CAPE/MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG I-70 FOR FUTURE GROWTH OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RISK ALONG THE FRONT UP THERE
SHOULD THE HRRR PAN OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
MOMENTUM FINALLY PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HYS TERMINAL, WHERE WE WILL GO WITH A 2-HR TEMPO GROUP OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING HAIL, WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BASED ON RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE HRRR MODEL OF A
SUPERCELL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AT GCK AND DDC, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY ANY TIME AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID-
EVENING, WITH THE PRECIPITATION MODE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY BY MID TO
LATE EVENING PRIOR TO ENDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  50  79  48 /  50  60  10  10
GCK  77  48  78  48 /  60  40  10  10
EHA  76  48  79  47 /  30  20  10  10
LBL  80  49  81  48 /  40  40  10  10
HYS  73  51  73  46 /  70  60  10  20
P28  82  53  81  52 /  10  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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