Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020604
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
104 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WARM AND WINDY DAY IS IN STORE TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND. ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE, A FAIRLY FLAT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID-UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, WITH THE CROSS-MOUNTAIN MOMENTUM LEADING TO A FURTHER
DEEPENING OF THE LEESIDE TROUGH. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LEE TROUGH
AND A GULF COAST HIGH WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY,
PARTICULARLY WEST OF A LIBERAL TO GARDEN TO WAKEENEY LINE. WEST OF
THERE WILL NOT BE AS WINDY CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH AXIS. LATE
AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS OF +25C WEST TO +18C EAST WILL LEAD TO HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S, WITH A FEW 85 TO 87F READINGS LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LEESIDE TROUGH
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO, HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING IN A RATHER DRY AIRMASS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A LOT
OF OUTFLOW DOMINATION. SOME EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS COULD REACH HAMILTON COUNTY BY EARLY EVENING, HOWEVER CLOUD-
BEARING STEERING FLOW WILL BE MEAGER, SO ANY EASTWARD PROGRESSION
WILL BE LIMITED, AND BY THE TIME ANY MEANINGFUL CONVECTION ENTERS
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS, IT WILL BE MID TO LATE EVENING AND CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE, MUCH LIKE WHAT WE SAW LATE LAST NIGHT ACROSS
THE SAME GENERAL AREA. WILL BE GOING WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WAY OUT WEST FOR THIS FORECAST SCENARIO.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUPY THE LONG TERM
DOMAIN WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. FIRST CHANCE WILL COME SUNDAY EVENING
WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE AND 25-35 KT OF
SHEAR. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96 IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CLOSER FRONTAL PROXIMITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S. FOR MONDAY, POPS WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE AS SIGNIFICANT
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH. PWATS
WILL APPROACH ONE INCH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AROUND. A WET PATTERN CONTINUES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUE LIFT, HIGH PWATS, AND ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT FOR
THURSDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS THEN. ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE PROBABILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A LEESIDE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY LEADING TO STRONG
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE DDC, GCK, HYS TERMINALS. LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL RANGE 18 TO 24 KNOTS SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30S KNOTS. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
11 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE TERMINALS, INCLUDING GCK, SO THE TAF WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  56  88  58 /  10  10  20  40
GCK  87  54  88  55 /  10  10  30  40
EHA  85  55  87  54 /  10  20  20  30
LBL  86  57  88  58 /  10  10  20  30
HYS  85  57  86  58 /  10  10  40  50
P28  84  58  85  60 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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