Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171118
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
618 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING
WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY, WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -16C AND -20C. AT LOWER LEVELS, MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, WEAK CAPPING, LOTS OF CONVECTION AND RESULTANT COPIOUS
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED THE REALLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
(60+ F DEWPOINTS) TO THE RED RIVER AND NORTHERN TEXAS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY SPARKING ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS MORNING IF THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYER CAN
BE OVERCOME AT THIS TIME OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AFTER MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE LOWER LEVELS
CAN RECOVER ENOUGH FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED CAPE. GIVEN THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
KANSAS, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL
AT LEAST THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR HALF DOLLARS. IF DEWPOINTS
RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S, THEN CAPE COULD REACH 1500 J/KG, ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS AND LARGER HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY, BUT
ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TODAY, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME MID 70S AROUND
ELKHART. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY EVENING. A DRYLINE IS FORECAST
TO PUSH TOWARDS DODGE CITY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM
MODEL KEEPS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST, WHILE THE GFS PUSHES IT WELL
EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TYPICALLY MODELS PUSH THE
DRYLINE MORE EAST THAN WHAT ACTUAL HAPPENS SO WILL GO WITH THE NAM
FOR NOW THAT AGREES WITH SPC SEVERE SLIGHT RISK FORECAST. CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO RUN FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. SOME NEGATIVES FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE ARE WEAKNESS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL FROM QUARTER TO GOLFBALL
WITH THE MID LEVELS FAIRLY COLD AROUND -17 CELSIUS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S FAR WEST TO THE MID 70 OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF KANSAS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS WITH
ONLY SOME LEFT OVER RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY FROM PRATT AND COLDWATER AND SOUTH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30 NORTH AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S SOUTH
FROM DODGE CITY TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO THURSDAY, SOME DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND OR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES TOWARDS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS GULF MOISTURE RETURNS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE 60S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND AROUND 70 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TUESDAY MORNING, THEN INTO THE 40S
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AROUND 19-21Z
THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY LAST INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING. SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS, OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE FORECAST AT
10-20KT EXCEPT STRONGER IN LOCAL SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEHIND A DRYLINE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 14% ACROSS MORTON COUNTY BY THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING WAS
ISSUED. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE STANTON AND
STEVENS COUNTIES. HOWEVER, ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
THIS MORNING FROM NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD PUSH WESTWARD
AND HINDER THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  52  72  46 /  60  60  40  50
GCK  71  48  69  45 /  50  50  30  40
EHA  71  42  68  44 /  10  20  20  30
LBL  71  46  71  46 /  30  40  30  30
HYS  70  56  72  49 /  70  70  50  50
P28  71  56  75  51 /  80  70  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH


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