Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 262037
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE
CLOSING OFF THEN SLOWING DOWN. MOISTURE THAT WAS INITIALLY SHUNTED
TO THE GULF COAST HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY CUT OFF THE LOW
LEVEL MOIST INFLOW INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO
THE SOUTH. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE STILL
MAINTAINED IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE,
WITH LESSER CHANCES FARTHER NORTH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
RAIN MAY STAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER, WITH A DROP OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES. IF THE RAIN SHIELD STAYS
IN OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY THEN TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY RISE INTO THE
LOWER 60S FROM DODGE CITY NORTHWARD IF THE SUN MAKES AN
APPEARANCE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST AND SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
DODGE CITY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS IS THE
FARTHEST NORTH WITH PRECIP, WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE IT MORE
SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, A DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN CONTROL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING, THEN WARM TO AROUND
50 ON FRIDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WARM FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND PERIOD, INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AS GULF
MOISTURE RETURNS. LOWS WILL BE MILD AN IN THE 50S, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUED TO RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES. THIS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
IMPROVING CIGS TO MVFR. IN ADDITION, AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER, SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  57  39  68 /  60  60  10  10
GCK  43  57  37  68 /  60  60  10  10
EHA  44  54  36  65 /  90  80  10   0
LBL  45  53  39  67 /  80  80  20  10
HYS  41  62  38  68 /  20  10  10  10
P28  48  57  42  66 /  70  70  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH


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