Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 060903
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
403 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: WHERE EXACTLY THE THREATS ARE MOST
SIGNIFICANT, WHAT THOSE THREATS WILL BE, AND JUST HOW THIS WILL ALL
UNFOLD.

OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THE CENTER OF A
RATHER AMORPHOUS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE SMALLER EMBEDDED MESOSCALE VORTICES ROTATING ABOUT A COMMON
LARGER CENTER. THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THESE APPEARED TO BE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS OF 0830 UTC AND CONTINUED TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. MID LEVEL DRYING WAS
OCCURRING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
PRECIPITATION HAD PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION,
HAVING MOVED OFF INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A SURFACE
LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO AS A
DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MOMENTUM IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND
TOWARD MIDDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF WARM AIR
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MOIST AXIS.  THE MOIST AXIS WILL RESIDE
ROUGHLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AS A THERMAL RIDGE NOSES
TOWARD THE MOIST AXIS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MOST PRONOUNCED NORTH
OF DODGE CITY UP TOWARD WAKEENEY. THIS WILL BE THE REGION MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER
ABOUT 2000 UTC (3PM CDT). FOLLOWING THE NSSL VERSION OF THE WRF-
ARW...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE HIGHWAY 283
CORRIDOR MAINLY NORTH OF DODGE CITY UP TO WAKEENEY...AND QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE AS ONE OR TWO STORMS EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE
ADEQUATE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LOOKS
REALLY GOOD WITH NEARLY 90 DEGREES OF TURNING THROUGH THE LAYER.
SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD BY
LATE AFTERNOON, AND IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR ROTATING CONVECTION, VERY LARGE HAIL LOOKS LIKE A VERY GOOD BET
WITH UNINTERRUPTED SUPERCELLS, WITH MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE AROUND TENNIS
BALLS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE TOWARD SUNSET. THERE IS GREAT CONCERN THAT IF A SUPERCELL CAN
THRIVE THROUGH SUNSET...OR IF A NEW SUPERCELL DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF UNINTERRUPTED INFLOW...THAT TORNADOES WILL
OCCUR. THE 0-1KM AGL NEAR SURFACE SHEAR WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
THIS LAYER IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 ALONG WITH SBCAPE OF 2500 J/KG IS
A DANGEROUS COMBINATION, AND MOST CERTAINLY SUPPORTS DANGEROUS
TORNADOES GIVEN AN ESTABLISHED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. THIS IS A
THREAT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AND HOPEFULLY HOURLY
3KM HRRR MODEL TRENDS WILL HELP THE DAY SHIFT IN ASSESSING THIS
THREAT FURTHER. BY MID TO LATE EVENING, THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARD THE WFO ICT AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS, RUSH,
STAFFORD, PRATT, BARBER COUNTIES) AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THEN EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL
SPIN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS THEN RETROGRADE
BACK WEST IN THE EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCAL POINT WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FROM IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS WITH AMPLE SHEAR IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ERGO, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE CWA SATURDAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. ONCE AGAIN, A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AT THE SURFACE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS THURSDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 80
DEGREES THEN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 70 DEGREES SATURDAY WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE COLD FRONT ISN`T
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S THEN REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

LOW STRATUS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITY IN THE IFR TO INTERMITTENT
LIFR CATEGORY WILL BE FOUND AT DDC, GCK, AND HYS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS POST SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE CEILING
WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 15Z WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR DEVELOPING IN THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY AT
GCK AND DDC. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 18 TO 23 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY MIDDAY TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE, AFFECTING HYS TERMINAL ONLY...AS GCK AND
DDC WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO FAR WEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  59  81  58 /  10  10  50  60
GCK  83  53  80  55 /  10  10  40  40
EHA  82  51  80  52 /  10  10  30  30
LBL  82  54  82  57 /  10  10  40  50
HYS  75  58  78  54 /  50  50  40  70
P28  77  63  81  61 /  50  40  60  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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