Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 010517
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1217 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN INTO NEBRASKA AS AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET MAX STREAMS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
STALLING OUT. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL SET UP A FIELD OF INCREASED
FORCING NEAR THE SURFACE, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MOISTURE RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE
OF A DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. STILL, AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
CAPPING WEAKENS.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH ANCHORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL DRAW
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD AS WELL AS BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS. LOOK FOR
LOWS ONLY DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH A FEW UPPER 40S(F) STILL POSSIBLE UP NEAR
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BEFORE STALLING
OUT, SOMEWHERE GENERALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS A RESULT, A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 15C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO A LITTLE ABOVE 20C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT, EXPECT HIGHS ONLY
UP INTO THE 70S(F) NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, LIKELY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS, TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S(F) SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

SATURDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING. 850-HPA
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 20S C WEST TO UPPER TEENS C EAST.
THIS SUPPORTS MIXDOWN TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND WITH 80S
ONCE AGAIN FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST DAY FOR PRECIPITATION IS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HERE
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION, PWATS INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH
AND ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A
WAVE WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SEVERE PICTURE IS LESS CLEAR
NOW IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ALL THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER
AND STJ HEADING FARTHER SOUTH. SHEAR IS NOT THAT STRONG EITHER.
SOMETHING TO WATCH, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG OR LOW END SEVERE
STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  84  58  85 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  54  84  56  85 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  52  84  56  84 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  54  84  58  85 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  55  84  58  84 /  10  10  10  30
P28  56  83  60  83 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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