Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 152006
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING: A DRYLINE WAS SETTING UP
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 80F AT
ELKHART. A PLUME OF MARGINAL SURFACE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS OF
AROUND 45F EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING IN THE AREA
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER JUST EAST-
NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW CENTER. THIS IS WHERE FRONTOGENESIS AT
THE SURFACE WAS STRONGEST AND THE BEST AREA FOR ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION TO FORM. SBCAPE WAS FAIRLY MEAGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LAPS ANALYSIS REVEALING A SMALL AXIS OF 300-500 J/KG. THIS
WILL INCREASE, THOUGH, BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO CLOSE TO
1000 J/KG AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WORK IN FROM THE
WEST. THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FROM SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY TO
PERHAPS WAKEENEY STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEVERE HAIL UP TO ABOUT
AN INCH AND A HALF IN DIAMETER.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT: A SMALL MCS WILL PROBABLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS, AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS JUST NORTH OF SCOTT CITY
TO WAKEENEY, HOWEVER WE WILL KEEP SOME 30-40 POPS IN THE NORTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. OTHERWISE, SOME OTHER DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION IN MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE WILL PROBABLY ADVANCE
NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND
THE 20-30 POPS SHOULD HANDLE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN PARTICULAR. SYNOPTIC SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST.

THURSDAY: ALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PUT THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION OF ASCENT WITH A LARGER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SETTING UP. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSER AND THE
MID-UPPER JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW, WE WILL BE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION, DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS EARLY AFTERNOON (SURFACE-BASED STUFF, THAT IS). THE
REAL QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH ANY CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SPC DAY2
OUTLOOK SHOWS A SLGT-2 RISK UP IN TO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
ENH-3 RISK COVERING AREAS SOUTH IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LATEST
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB CORES SHOW FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON WHICH MATCHES THE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
QPF SIGNAL OFF THE GFS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIRLY BROAD AXIS OF
1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EXTENDING UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH A POSSIBLE SHIFT OF THE SPC RISK AREAS NORTH TO INCLUDE A
LARGER PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND EXTENDING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPER PRECIPITABLE  WATER. THE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT  INTO FRIDAY. THE ENTIRE AREA COULD SEE
SCATTERED TO MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES, JUST AHEAD OF A DRYLINE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WITH THIS PATTERN ON FRIDAY , A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
DRYLINE SUPERCELL CONVECTION MODE IS POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY A HAIL
AND WIND THREAT.

RAINS FROM THE CONVECTION AND MORE SO FORM THE
CONVECTIVE/STRATIFORM MIX WITH THE UPPER COLD CORE LOW ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DROUGHT. MODELS AND PLUME DIAGRAMS SUPPORT ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH
THE GFS ON THE LOW END AND THE NAM ON THE HIGHER END AT THIS TIME.
IN GENERAL, MUCH MORE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT SETS UP, AND FAR LESS IN THE
FAR WEST, WHERE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIMITED.

SUNDAY WILL BRING THE FILLING AND DAMPENING OF THE UPPER LOW, AND A
RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS AND
INSTABILITY/COLD AIR ADVECTION  SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE
DAY  AND POSSIBLY LATER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REESTABLISHED,
HOWEVER A PERFECTLY DRY PATTERN IS NOT CERTAIN AS THE WAVE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE CYCLONIC ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A STRONG POLAR JET IMMEDIATELY TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TYPICAL LATE DAY HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ANY GIVEN DAY, DRIVEN ALONG ANY
SUPPORTIVE STEEP LAPSE RATE /INSTABILITY AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
DEEP SURFACE LOW REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL BE ACROSS FAR WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS THIS EVENING, WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY FOR CONVECTION
IMPACTING GCK, DDC, AND HYS TERMINALS. THE PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO INCLUDE IN THE OFFICIAL TAF. THERE WILL BE A
MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME, LATE TONIGHT, WE SHOULD SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR
STRATUS ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  70  51  70 /  20  70  70  50
GCK  48  70  47  68 /  20  70  60  40
EHA  46  67  43  67 /  20  40  60  30
LBL  52  67  47  70 /  30  70  60  40
HYS  51  68  50  69 /  30  70  80  80
P28  54  76  54  72 /  20  30  70  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ074-084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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