Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 160844
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO
THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA UP TO THIS
POINT, A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO
THE MORNING CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING,
AIRMASS RECOVERY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS
UNCERTAIN. BUT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB, ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS LINGER. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES TODAY OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE 70S. SOUTH WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 50S TONIGHT, EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER WHERE IT WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STAYING EVEN
WARMER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE DRY
SLOT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT WILL RUN FROM NEAR LIBERAL AND
GARDEN CITY TO THE EAST. COULD BE DRY AND WINDY ENOUGH ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST AROUND 70.

FOR SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WOBBLE FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LESSER CHANCES WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL RUN FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 TO 55 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM 65 TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
EVENING. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN BACK
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS ON SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE MILD AND IN THE 40S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW WAVES IN
THIS FLOW COULD BRING SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME.
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH 08Z, THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THEREAFTER AS A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 19Z THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  54  70  49 /  70  70  60  60
GCK  71  52  68  44 /  70  60  60  60
EHA  72  51  67  42 /  40  60  30  30
LBL  73  54  70  46 /  70  60  50  50
HYS  71  53  69  49 /  70  80  70  50
P28  77  56  71  54 /  30  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH



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