Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240611
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WAS ALSO PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 30- 40 KNOTS
OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER BUT ABOVE THIS LAYER, STRONGER SHEAR
WAS IN PLACE IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. THE STORMS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
ROTATING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRONG EVACUATION ALOFT, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND JOHNSON AND
SYRACUSE AND POINTS NORTH THIS EVENING AROUND 23Z-01Z AND HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES IN THAT AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES, AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WHICH COULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND/OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND 156. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ELEVATED HAILERS. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST WHILE A DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE 18Z MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE BETTER 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DODGE CITY CWFA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SOME GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE KS/NE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MOST OF SATURDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
OPEN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, INTENSIFYING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNER`S REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEING MORE THAN 4 DAYS OUT TIMING AND POSITION WILL MOST LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
PREDICT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH, THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FACTOR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN KANSAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER 30S COULD BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY THEN DECREASE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST DAY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR, AS SURFACE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE LOW.
SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMES AN IMPACT IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE STORMS THE LARGE HAIL (2 TO 3
INCH DIAMETER) AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS MAINLY AFFECTING THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IN THE MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  49  78  47 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  77  48  77  47 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  76  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  80  48  81  49 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  73  50  73  45 /  40  40  10  20
P28  82  52  80  50 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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