Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161821
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
121 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

IN THE SHORT TERM, A FEW (2-3) ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH HE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS OR SO AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT, AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
THE FIRST ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NESTED 4 KM NAM AND HRRR MODELS HAVE GENERALLY AGREED ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BETWEEN AROUND 2 AND 4 PM, AND RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO A
MULTICELLULAR LINE AFTER AN HOUR OR SO OF SLOWER GROWING DISCREET
CELLS. THE INITIAL ROTATING STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS AND
DAMAGING WIND BEFORE THE STORMS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED OR LINEAR,
PRESENTING A SLIGHTLY SMALLER HAIL THREAT AND STILL DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 283 AND 183 CORRIDORS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD BE INTERFERED WITH BY THE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY STILL ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
A CONTINUED HAIL IF NOT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
SOME BL STABILITY SHOULD HINDER THE WIND THREAT. THE DYNAMICS OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL DRIVE A DRY SLOT THROUGH THE REGION OF FRIDAY, BUT
NOT BEFORE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES
TO YET ANOTHER SEVERE EPISODE WITH AS GOOD OR BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
COMBINATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING THE NAM AND
GFS, AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ADDITIONALLY THE POPS WERE RAISED LOWERED FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASED ALONG THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW, BUT BY THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE SEVERELY OCCLUDED
WITH THE DRY INTRUSION WORKING IN FAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT,
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS RATHER DRY NOW WITH THE SYNOPTIC DRY INTRUSION
ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AS A RESULT FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CORE OF THE MID
LEVEL CYCLONE WALLOWS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. WE
WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-40 POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS, HENCE THE 20 TOP 30 POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND, WE WILL ENTER A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT WITH LARGE SCALE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
AND WILL BE ACCOUNTED FOR IN LOCAL TERMINALS. THE CONVECTION IS
MODELED BY THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS TO GO FAIRLY
MULTICELLULAR, OR A BROKEN LINE WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND THREAT EARLY
INTO THE EVENING, BUT BEGINNING AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS EARLY AS
20-22 UTC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  70  49  69 /  70  60  60  50
GCK  52  68  44  69 /  60  60  60  40
EHA  51  67  42  66 /  60  30  30  30
LBL  54  70  46  69 /  60  50  40  30
HYS  53  69  49  71 /  80  70  60  50
P28  56  71  54  72 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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