Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230837
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE IS
LOCATED ABOVE THE ROCKIES WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS
THIS FEATURE APPROACHES, LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LEADING TO INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
BEFORE CURVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX/OK BORDER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TOMORROW. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER OVERNIGHT EXPANDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
KS/CO BORDER BY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
BUT THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH HIGHS TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS
WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE BY LATE DAY AND WHERE THE MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING BE LOCATED FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL TO BE LOCATED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 WHILE THE GFS, AND ARW WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVED
THE FRONT, DRYLINE, MOISTURE, AND BETTER INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH SEEMS TO BE A NICE BLEND BETWEEN THE
TWO EXTREMES LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON A WEST WIND WILL DEVELOP BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASE FIRE DANGER LEVELS, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE RECENT GREEN UP BASED ON THE FUEL STATUS PAGE CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FIRE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
DAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 8-10 DEGREE COOLER. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR TO
THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS
AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY BE ON
THE INCREASE FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLOUDY SKIES, COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FROM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEW MEXICO, ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 156.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THE TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL BE CEILINGS HEADING
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. EASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM FORECASTS A SHARP
CUTOFF FOR SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS AND A ZONE OF
DRIZZLE PRODUCTION IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID LEVEL MOIST ZONE
(ROUGHLY THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE HIGHWAY 83-283 CORRIDORS).
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING, ORIGINATING FROM
SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION EVEN FOR A PROB GROUP IN ANY TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  79  50 /  20  40  20  20
GCK  63  51  77  47 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  72  49  79  47 /  20  40  10  10
LBL  66  54  81  49 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  51  73  49 /  10  60  40  50
P28  61  54  81  52 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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