Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190850
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
350 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THIS MORNING AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES INTO EASTERN
KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A WELL DEFINED BATCH OF "WRAPAROUND"
RAINFALL OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES. NEVERTHELESS, DUE TO RESPECTABLE LAPSE
RATES, SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER AROUND 6-8 AM AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. NONE
OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. CLEARING IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT; BUT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 KTS INSTEAD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ALSO, SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT;
AND THIS MAY ALSO HELP PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO THEIR
POTENTIAL. NEVERTHELESS, SOME READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE
LIKELY FROM DODGE CITY NORTH AND WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO
THE WIND AND POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER, OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
YET, AND WILL DEFER TO THE DAY SHIFT. WE DID INTRODUCE PATCHY
FROST INTO THE FORECAST.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

FOR MONDAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE ELKHART AREA, THEN SLIGHT CHANCES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NOT
ALOT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED HOWEVER. HIGHS MONDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

FOR TUESDAY, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF
DODGE CITY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS GULF MOISTURE
MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. FOR THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS WITH ONLY SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. FOR FRIDAY, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF WHILE THE GFS LAGS BEHIND
WITH THE WAVE. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE A FAIRLY DECENT
SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, OR IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT THIS SCENARIO DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES AROUND 14Z, WITH MVFR
CIGS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 19Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO 25-30 KTS BETWEEN 17-23Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  34  63  40 /  60   0  10  20
GCK  58  33  62  39 /  50   0  10  20
EHA  58  33  64  40 /  50   0  30  30
LBL  59  34  65  41 /  30   0  10  20
HYS  58  34  62  37 /  60   0  10  10
P28  63  37  64  42 /  60   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH



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