Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280655
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
155 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING TO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AT 00Z TUESDAY, WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. MODELS THIS MORNING WERE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE MOISTURE PRECEDING THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BEING AT OR ABOVE THE 800MB LEVEL. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES KANSAS.
GIVEN THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CLIP NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THERE MIGHT BE EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES,
HOWEVER BASED ON THE LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS HAVE DECIDED NOT TO
MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WARMER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SO WILL STAY CLOSE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWS FALLING BACK ONLY INTO THE
LOWER 40S. COOLER TEMPERATURES LIKELY FURTHER SOUTHWEST BASED ON
THE EXPECTED LIGHT WEST WINDS AND LESS CLOUD COVER.

AS FOR TODAY WILL BE BASED HIGHS ON THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY GIVEN CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
MID WEEK. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE LEE TROUGHING, A RETURN TO SOUTH
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE CLOSED
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOIST RETURN FLOW. BY
THE WEEKEND, SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSH WEAK COLD FRONTS SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND BETTER CHANCES BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS, LOW
DEWPOINTS AND COOL READINGS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER
70S BY AFTERNOON. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LEE
TROUGHING PERSISTS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S AND LOWS RISING INTO THE 50S

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BASED ON 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS. NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID DAY AND INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15
KNOTS RANGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  39  72  45 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  69  37  74  44 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  66  38  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  68  38  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  71  42  72  44 /   0  10   0   0
P28  69  42  72  46 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-061>063-074>077-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT



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