Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 070535
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEBRASKA
TONIGHT. A DRYLINE WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND RUN FROM NEAR
WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY AND COLDWATER AND EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE INTO
THE EVENING. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
ROTATING SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST CAPE WILL
RUN FROM ST. JOHN TO MEDICINE LODGE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
TORNADOES. A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR TORNADOES ARE THE LACK OF
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER WITH SUCH STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL SHEAR A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEY MAY NOT LAST
VERY LONG AS THE STORM COLLAPSES ON ITSELF DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER WINDS. THE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
AFTER 7 TO 8 PM. OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY NORTH OF DODGE CITY TONIGHT AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS LATE. LOW TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 EAST
OF DODGE CITY AND LOW TO MID 50S TO THE WEST.

FOR THURSDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AS LOW PRESSURE REFORMS IN COLORADO. GOOD MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ALSO. THE SHEAR PROFILE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY,
HOWEVER WITH CAPES FORECAST AROUND 2000 J/KG, SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
BEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT FROM JUST SOUTH
OF HAYS TO GARDEN CITY AND SOUTH TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
TO EASTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS
EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW TORNADOES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY, THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL INCREASE AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL EXPAND EVEN INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. SEVERE STORM
CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND
AIRMASS RECOVERY FROM PRIOR CONVECTION. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY, SOME
SEVERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
AS FAR EAST AS DODGE CITY BY MONDAY MORNING AND MAYBE TUESDAY
MORNING AS WELL, WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE
COLORADO BORDER. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILDING
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK AS THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ALONG
WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS PUSHED AS FAR EAST AS DODGE CITY WILL
BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT HAYS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AND BECOME
WEST TO NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. STRONG WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHWEST FROM OKLAHOMA MAY RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS ALONG
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AT DODGE CITY AND HAYS LATE TONIGHT. ANY
STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TERMINALS LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  75  56  73 /  60  50  50  70
GCK  55  70  54  72 /  40  40  50  70
EHA  52  73  51  72 /  30  30  30  60
LBL  57  76  55  73 /  50  40  40  70
HYS  54  69  55  70 /  70  50  50  60
P28  61  80  60  76 /  70  50  50  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD


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