Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180601
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
101 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION BOTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY WEAK TO MODERATE BOUYANCY/CAPE BUT
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS SET UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SEPARATING A MOIST A COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND DRYER WARMER AIR BEHIND A DRYLINE WEST OF
LIBERAL. THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT DISCREET
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE REGION WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWARD RIGHT MOVING STORM MOTIONS. THIS WILL PRESENT
A TORNADO RISK ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES ESPECIALLY THE AREA
NORTHWEST OF THE GARDEN CITY TO SYRACUSE, DIGHTON AND SCOTT CITY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA, WITH STILL
A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. A PERIOD OF SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE MID
EVENING WILL FOLLOW AS FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET PROMOTES LIFT
THROUGH THE REST OF OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REGIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN  AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS. HERE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN
MAY OCCUR TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY UNDER THE UPPER COLD POOL AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM
THAT BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION...WHICH WILL NOT BE
UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING SOME CHANCE POPS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE 500-700MB DEFORMATION AXIS
PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AND AN OVERALL COOL, DAMP, WINDY DAY APPEARS QUITE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF
CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT IT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AROUND A DEEPENING
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE GYRE. THIS WILL ONLY ACT TO KEEP
COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEFORMATION AXIS. BY MID-WEEK, WE WILL
SEE SOME WEAK RIDGING APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH WESTERN KANSAS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL LEAD TO A MERGER
OF NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES
LONGWAVE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE WITH A COLD AIRMASS
(FOR MID/LATE APRIL) LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST REGION. A FAIRLY ROBUST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED (A) PRECIPITATION EVENT(S)
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT IS UNCLEAR
HOW THIS WILL ALL UNFOLD AT DAYS 7-10 IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN CERTAINLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A WETTER THAN
AVERAGE 3-5 DAY PERIOD FOR MID TO LATE APRIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT 20-40 POPS FOR EACH PERIOD MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS WET PATTERN TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT KHYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 20Z.
MVFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AT DDC BY 10-12Z WITH DIURNAL COOLING
AND CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO
KHYS/KGCK AFTER 09Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD AND
WESTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  64  39  60 /  30  30  10  10
GCK  45  61  37  59 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  44  62  39  59 /  20  10  20  30
LBL  46  63  40  60 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  49  61  36  60 /  50  60  10  10
P28  51  66  41  61 /  60  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH


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