Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251809
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
109 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORECAST BY
THE 00Z NAM IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
LATE DAY. EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT COOLING TREND THE 850MB TEMPERATURES
AT 00Z SUNDAY SUGGEST AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 56. THIS
APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP, AND THE NAM AND GFS INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE. DEPTH OF THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE BY 12Z
SUNDAY WILL TO BE LESS THAN 3000FT AGL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS SO AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OF INSERTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, DRIZZLE, TONIGHT. OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT THE THE DEPTH OF THE
MOIST LAYER WILL BE MARGINAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CURRENT
FORECAST CURRENTLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST
OF A GARDEN CITY TO RUSH CENTRAL LINE AND SO WILL LEAVE THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS IS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH A LACK OF
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AS WELL, WHICH APPEARS WELL AGREED UPON
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM MODELS AT THIS TIME. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEWS SHOW A SATURATED LOWEST 1000-2500 FT WHILE
CAPPED BY A DRY LAYER ABOVE ABOUT THE 800 MB LEVEL. AL IN ALL A
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY WITH POSSIBLY PATCHY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY  LATER IN
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

NAM/ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALL TAKE THE 500 MB LOW TRACK THROUGH
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. THAT TRACK WILL PUT THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA ON COLD CONVEYOR BELT/ AND UPPER
DEFORMATION AXIS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A TRANSITION FROM CLOUDY
AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE CONDITIONS RAIN SHOWERS AN POTENTIALLY A PERIOD
OF RAIN AND STRONGER CONVECTION IS LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE LAST BLEND SOLUTION INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR
THESE AREAS. SUCH A PATTERN IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. COOLEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE SOUTH
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED.

BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BEYOND MONDAY WITH LITTLE OBVIOUS
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION . TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A
WARMING TREND. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS AND MODEL BLEND HIGHS ARE
FORECAST AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL, BUT WARMING TO THE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 05Z WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
EAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 05 AND 08Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KGCK/KDDC
AFTER 12Z AS THE MOIST LAYER DEEPENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  57  43  54 /  20  20  60  60
GCK  48  51  43  53 /  20  30  60  60
EHA  48  54  43  49 /  40  40  80  90
LBL  50  55  45  51 /  20  30  80  90
HYS  46  55  42  58 /  20  20  30  30
P28  49  65  47  56 /  10  10  60  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...FINCH


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