Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200803
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

TONIGHT:

BOIVERIFY SHOWS THAT THE MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE A WARM BIAS. I WOULD
BELIEVE THIS GIVEN THAT THIS MORNINGS LOWS WERE A LITTLE BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. PERUSING SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
SOME SOLUTIONS ARE COOLER THAN OTHERS FOR TONIGHT`S MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
GRID. WILL GO AHEAD A TAKE THE COOLER SOLUTION GIVEN THE FACT THAT A
COLD AIR MASS IS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL NOT
BE CALM, HOWEVER, THEY WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE SOME APPROACHING CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MORNING. THIS COULD HAMPER WITH TEMPS.
ANYWAY, WOULD RATHER ERROR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND GO WITH COLDER
LOWS. AS A RESULT, HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS WELL. THE COLDEST OF READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S.
WITH ALL THE RECENTLY BLOOMED PLANTS, BE SURE TO USE CAUTION AND COVER
UP SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

TOMORROW:

SOME OF THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE LIKE THE 4 KM NAM AND WRF-ARW SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR EVEN SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING.
WILL PUT IN SILENT 14 PERCENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN HOW DRY THE LOW LEVELS
ARE. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
ZONES AS THE VORTMAX PASSES OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE, TOMORROW WILL
BE LESS WINDY WITH HIGHS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR TUESDAY, LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING FROM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER TO THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA AS
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70.
OVERNIGHT, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE
AS GULF MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

ON WEDNESDAY, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
AS SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE COMING
INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE NEW GFS RUN IS NOW FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THIS WAVE. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF
DODGE CITY. MORE SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS RETURN SUNDAY WITH
A DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 13-15KTS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN DIMINISH BY 00Z
WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  40  71  46 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  61  39  70  44 /  20  10  10  20
EHA  63  40  71  47 /  20  20  10  30
LBL  63  41  72  48 /  20  20  10  30
HYS  62  37  70  44 /  10  10  10  20
P28  64  42  72  50 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ031-046-064-
065-074>078-084>087.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-043>045-061>063.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH



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