Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 041752
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1252 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL HAVE GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DRAW IN
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF UPPER 50S INTO A MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH, BY MID AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
TO EXTEND FROM NEAR ELKHART NORTHEASTWARD TO ROUGHLY GARDEN CITY UP
TO NESS CITY-WAKEENEY-HAYS AREAS. THIS IS THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST POPS WILL ALSO BE ACROSS
THIS AREA WITH 70 TO 90 POPS IN THE GRIDS. 0-6KM AGL SHEAR WILL BE A
BIT GREATER FARTHER NORTH WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MORE BACKED.
 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE STILL GOING TO BE VERY ANEMIC WITH
250MB WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS, SO THIS WILL PRESENT A PROBLEM FOR
PRECIPITATION EVACUATION FROM UPDRAFTS, WHICH COULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE.
THAT SAID, MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE OF GOLFBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST, MARGINAL SUPERCELL STORMS WHICH COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WHERE THE LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR WILL BE HIGHEST. BY
THIS EVENING, THE NAM12 SUGGESTS THE CLOUD-BEARING FLOW AND 1KM AGL
FLOW WILL BOTH BE OF SOME VARIATION FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF BACKWARD PROPAGATING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS SOMETHING
THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING,
PERHAPS. BY THE END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD, THE SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE APPROACHING WEST TEXAS, AND WILL BE
PUTTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN A BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE ZONE OF FORCING
FOR ASCENT. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY 12Z TUESDAY...AND POPS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH AT THIS
TIME FROM 70 TO 90 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

AS AN UPPER LEVEL OPEN WAVE MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
THEN MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE CURLING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SATURATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT PUSHES UP
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME LEADING TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS THE
FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH COLORADO. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THEN SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM PUSHES SHORTWAVES AROUND ITS
PERIPHERY AND TOWARDS WESTERN KANSAS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW WARM WE GET. AS
FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS, SKIES LOOK TO BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS
FAR WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE 70S THIS WEEKEND. LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE KS/CO
BORDER TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CONVECTION IS LIKELY NEAR THE HYS TERMINAL (POSSIBLY NEAR GCK AS
WELL) BETWEEN 23 AND 03 UTC, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LIFT NORTH WITH THE MEAN FLOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, PROVIDING ADEQUATE LIFT FOR RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE STRONGEST CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE GCK TERMINAL BETWEEN 12
AND 15 UTC, WEAKENING FARTHER NORTH. CEILINGS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT
WITH A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT PROBABLY BE LOWEST DURING THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  57  69  57 /  50  80  70  70
GCK  78  55  67  55 /  70  90  90  60
EHA  77  53  69  51 /  70  80  90  50
LBL  80  56  69  56 /  60  90  90  60
HYS  79  57  71  58 /  60  80  60  70
P28  85  59  75  60 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.