Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 310551
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1251 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSES THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
40 WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER MOSGUIDE WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND
45 IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE DAY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND BEGIN TO DRAW 50
DEGREE DEW POINTS BACK TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY.
00Z WEDNESDAY CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG SOUTH
OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY LINE, HOWEVER A WEAK CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
WARMING. GIVEN THIS WEAK CAP ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEING IN
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES. THE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 85 DEGREES BASED ON
TEMPERATURES LATE DAY IN THE 850MB TO 800MB LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE AN
ELEVATED STORM IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME STRATUS ALSO
IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE MID MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF GARDEN CITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND RANGE
FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE TROUGH FORMING. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. WILL BLEND AND
KEEP THE DRYLINE NEAR DODGE CITY FOR NOW. THE CAP IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN BY LATER AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DRYLINE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NEAR HAYS TO
DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL. WILL ADD A SMALL POP TO COVER FOR NOW. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THERE IS ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR TO GET SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL INCREASE
CHANCES IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO THE NIGHT. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG DEPENDING ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE
RETURN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
AND LASTLY AT THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH NEAR 90 WEST OF THE
DRYLINE, AND MID 80S EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S FAR WEST TO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON THURSDAY, COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

ON FRIDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAINLY
IN THE MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE COLDER AND ONLY IN THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SHOULD BE DRY WITH MAINLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS WARM FROM THE 60S ON
SATURDAY, TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY, TO AROUND 80 BY MONDAY. LOWS ALSO
WARM FROM THE 30S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS INTO THE 40S
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FAIRLY TRANQUIL AVIATION WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
EASTERLY WIND BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12 TO 15 KNOTS. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DRAW UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING (A LITTLE BIT BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  85  47  67 /  10  20  20   0
GCK  50  87  45  66 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  50  85  45  67 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  52  87  46  69 /  10  20  20   0
HYS  53  84  45  66 /  10  30  30  10
P28  55  84  53  70 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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