Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 031940
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS, AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTH OF THIS COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES
SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG EACH OF THESE BOUNDARIES
BASED ON 00Z MONDAY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS NEAR AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH INDICATES AN
INVERTED V TYPE OF SOUNDINGS WITH CLOUD BASES NEAR THE 700MB
LEVEL. SBCAPE LATE DAY RANGED FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN
IMPROVING 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
LATE DAY INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 LATE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH NEAR
THE I-70 CORRIDOR NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AROUND HAYS SUGGESTING WEAK
CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR IS
FORECAST THIS EVENING TO RANGE FROM 20 TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OF 50 TO NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE A HAZARD ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN KANSAS LATE DAY AND EARLY TONIGHT GIVEN THE INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON MONDAY A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE DAY AS
AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
THESE TWO BOUNDARIES WILL BE WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EJECTS OUT FROM THE BASED ON THE UPPER LOW AND
APPROACHES SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE BASED ON THE 900 TO 850MB TEMPERATURE TREND
FROM THE NAM AND GFS FROM 00Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY WILL FAVOR A
10 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. SLIGHTLY LESS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS YIELDED
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY AS
CAPES INCREASE TO 2000 J/KG OR GREATER BY LATE DAY. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE WILL BEGIN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z, AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY WILL BE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 96 GIVEN THE LOCATION OF INCREASING 0-1KM MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE THE 00Z TUESDAY INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS AND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD LATE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THEN WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND CURLS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
THEN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY.  MOISTURE ABOVE WESTERN
KANSAS WILL INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES LEADING TO
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE IS
ANTICIPATED TO SPRAWL OUT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY THEN
SHIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
WITH WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY FROM MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH TRAJECTORIES ON THE WEST SIDE BRINGING UP COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE
MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HEATING OCCURS DURING
THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES BECOME LIKELY TUESDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BE PULLED UP FROM THE GULF AND PWAT`S SURPASS AN INCH.

MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
TUESDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY.
THIS LOW THEN CURLS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY THEN
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW  PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS MONDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
LOCATED TO LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 50
DEGREES ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS TODAY. GIVE THE LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY
THE WINDS TODAY WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AFTER SUNSET THE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS KEEP CLOUD BASES WITH THESE STORMS
AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. AT
THIS TIME THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT GCK BETWEEN 23Z
SUNDAY AND 02Z MONDAY. AT DDC AND HAY FROM 02Z TO 06Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  80  57  69 /  40  50  80  80
GCK  55  78  55  67 /  40  60  90  90
EHA  54  75  53  70 /  30  60  80  80
LBL  57  79  56  69 /  40  60  90  90
HYS  58  78  57  72 /  40  60  60  60
P28  60  81  59  75 /  20  30  30  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT


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