Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220521
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE, A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW WILL HELP PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH IT STRETCHED
ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FRONT THEN TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH. CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO ENVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
TOMORROW AS MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS TOMORROW ONLY REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS AND GEM ALL SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS
WEEK. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE STATIONARY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF KANSAS FROM THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A COOL MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OVER
OKLAHOMA. AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SOME SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND WE SEE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS.

THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO EJECT OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A
CLOSED OFF LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT COULD EXTEND FROM THE LOW INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE A DRYLINE FORMS FARTHER SOUTH AND PUSHES EAST
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL
STABILITY FIELDS FROM THE GFS SHOW 1500-2000 J/KG OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE FARTHER SOUTH.
TIMING WILL BE KEY IN HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WE SEE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW SCOOTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
BEHIND THIS WAVE WE SHOULD SEE COOLER AND QUIETER WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25KT. THE WINDS DECREASE BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 10-15KT, THEN BECOME EASTERLY
AROUND 10KT BY EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY MID CLOUDS TODAY, THEN
LOWERING CIGS TO OVC030-035 BY EVENING WITH MOIST EASTERLY
UPSLOPE. COULD HAVE SOME LOWER STRATUS AFTER 06Z TOWARDS 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  63  55  78 /  20  10  30  30
GCK  44  63  51  75 /  10  20  30  40
EHA  48  69  48  74 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  48  67  55  77 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  42  60  50  70 /  10  10  50  60
P28  46  66  54  77 /  20  10  30  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...KRUSE



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