Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 311133
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF IA WILL PULL AWAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STALL TODAY...THEN BEGINS LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
STRONGER LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO IA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST OF IOWA OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A
WEAK TROUGH AND WINDSHIFT ACROSS THE STATE.  TODAY WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST.  THE RESULT WILL BE A LIGHTER WIND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND WITH LIGHTER WIND AND LESS MIXING AND A WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY.
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY THOUGH AND THE SUN WILL BE BRIGHT TODAY AND TEMPS
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO THE WARMEST GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 50S WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DECENT
INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 2000 J/KG AVAILABLE DURING PRIME
TIME...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS LOST REASONABLY QUICKLY. WITH FRONT
SLOWING DOWN AND H8 JET INCREASING TO AT LEAST 50 KTS...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS STRONG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO OVER 2500
METERS WITH PWAT VALUES IN IN THE 1.3 INCH RANGE...ABOUT 3 SIGMA
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE IS A SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT TO
SEE MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH ISOLATED SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL RAINFALL WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING...BUT THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTER LINGERING
SHOWERS END. COLD FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO GET TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE
STATE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING AND MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...AND OVER THE CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/12Z
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.  SFC
WIND WILL BE NW AT AROUND 10KTS DURING PK HTG THEN DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.  AFT 06Z WIND WILL SHIFT TO A MORE S OR SERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAR 15
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS MAR 15
AVIATION...FAB



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