National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KEAX 091746
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1146 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TO MAINLY INCREASE POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC SEEMS TO DOING A GOOD JOB HANDLING LOW
LEVEL FN CONVERGENCE IN ITS ANALYSIS AND VERY SHORT TERM FORECAST BUT
CONTINUALLY WANTS TO DISSIPATE THE BAND. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW
AN EXPANSION OF SNOW HAVE AN INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WAS
WARRANTED.

CDB

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SAGGED SSE TO ALONG THE MO/IA BDR
NORTH OF KSTJ EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE SNOW COMING TO AN END IN
THE ERN GRIDS AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY INTO ERN MO. THE CLR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE SNOW COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS HAVE SURGED INTO NWRN
MO...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...WITH WIND CHILLS OVER XTRM
NWRN MO FM -10 TO -15. THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SE ACR
THE ENTIRE CWA...POTENTIALLY CAUSING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. DO NOT
PLAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. FOR THE TIME BEING WILL CONFINED THE
BLOWING SNOW TO THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA WHERE THE RECENT SNOWS
HAVE BEEN THE HEAVIEST. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO FINE TUNE
THIS REGION AS WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT BLOWING SNOW MAY
STILL BE A PROBLEM FOR THE ERN GRIDS THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...MOISTURE WILL WRAP CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW TODAY...YIELDING PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR EXTREME NERN MO WITH
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. AS THE LOW PULLS EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING...THE FLURRIES WILL END IN CENTRAL AND NERN MO THIS EVENING.
SFC RIDGE TO BUILD INTO MO ON WED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.

GIVEN THE SNOW PACK AND TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO
WARM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

DB


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SNOW...LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD WORK BACK INTO
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WRAP AROUND PORTION OF THE UPPER
LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME RESOLVING ANYTHING REGARDING SO WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
THESE CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON HOW LONG THE
SITES WILL BE AFFECTED. AREA PROFILERS DO SHOW INCREASING WIND SPEEDS
ALOFT AND THIS MAY HELP TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW OUT FASTER SO HAVE
MOVED THE SNOW EAST OF THE SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD MOVE OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING GIVING
WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS.

CDB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$