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000
FXUS63 KEAX 091006
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
406 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...

THE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SAGGED SSE TO ALONG THE MO/IA BDR
NORTH OF KSTJ EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE SNOW COMING TO AN END IN
THE ERN GRIDS AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS ITS WAY INTO ERN MO. THE CLR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE SNOW COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS HAVE SURGED INTO NWRN
MO...FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...WITH WIND CHILLS OVER XTRM
NWRN MO FM -10 TO -15. THE STRONG NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SE ACR
THE ENTIRE CWA...POTENTIALLY CAUSING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. DO NOT
PLAN AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. FOR THE TIME BEING WILL CONFINED THE
BLOWING SNOW TO THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA WHERE THE RECENT SNOWS
HAVE BEEN THE HEAVIEST. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO FINE TUNE
THIS REGION AS WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT BLOWING SNOW MAY
STILL BE A PROBLEM FOR THE ERN GRIDS THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...MOISTURE WILL WRAP CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW TODAY...YIELDING PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR EXTREME NERN MO WITH
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. AS THE LOW PULLS EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING...THE FLURRIES WILL END IN CENTRAL AND NERN MO THIS EVENING.
SFC RIDGE TO BUILD INTO MO ON WED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.

GIVEN THE SNOW PACK AND TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO
WARM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUD DECK AND POSSIBLY
FLURRIES TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES...BY AROUND 08Z-KSTJ...09Z-KMCI AND
09-10Z FOR KMKC. DID NOT INCLUDE FLURRIES IN TAFS WITH IT NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT IF IT HAPPENS AT ALL. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A MORE SOLID MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ARE ALSO EXPECTED. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO ALSO INCREASE DURING
THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$