Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 260700
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

...VALID 06Z SUN APR 26 2015 - 12Z MON APR 27 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SE LBL 10 ESE WDG 15 ENE MLC LBR 15 E TRL 25 SW GDJ
30 WNW SEP 45 SSW F05 15 NNW AMA 30 W CAO 35 NNW TAD PUB
30 ENE PUB 15 WNW SPD 15 SE LBL.



...SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

STRONG SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS FOR AREAS OF HEAVY...POTENTIALLY
EXCESSIVE...RAINFALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM HIGH PLAINS
E-SE ACROSS EITHER SIDE OF THE RED RIVER DURING THE DAY 1
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z MON. THE
DEEP...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING N-S ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST EARLY WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT DURING THE
DAY ONE PERIOD...LEADING TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BECOME QUITE
FAVORABLE...WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE
LOW COMBINING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE MID MS VLY LEADING TO ROBUST
DEEP LAYER UVVS LATE IN THE PERIOD (00-12Z MON) ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK S TO N PROGRESSION OF THE PW AXIS
OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES CLIMBING TO 1-1.5+ INCHES. DEEP LAYER
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT
(2000-3000 J/KG...SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY)...WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME DIMINISHING TO UNDER 500 J/KG OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND AOB 1000 J/KG NORTH OF THE RED RIVER AFTER 00Z. AT ANY
RATE...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG DYNAMICAL SIGNAL WITH
SUFFICIENT (ALBEIT NOT AS ROBUST) THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILE WILL
LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFTER 00Z AS THE
INCREASING S-SE-E LOW LEVEL INFLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE LEADS TO INCREASED UPWIND PROPAGATION AND POTENTIAL
FOR CELL TRAINING. A MULTI-MODEL BLEND OF 1-2+ INCHES OF AREAL
AVERAGE QPF IS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...HOWEVER PER
THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3-5+ INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT MOIST SOILS (RECENT REDUCTION IN
FFG)...THESE AMOUNTS WOULD MOST CERTAINLY LEAD TO SOME SHORT TERM
RUNOFF ISSUES.

HURLEY

$$





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