Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 231854
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

...VALID 18Z THU APR 23 2015 - 00Z SAT APR 25 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NE BQP 35 ESE BAD 40 NW UTS 20 E LHB BAZ 30 N LRD
25 WNW MMNL 35 SSW MMPG 25 SE E29 35 NNW 7F9 10 SE GYI
25 ESE DEQ 30 NE LLQ 30 NW GWO 10 SW GLH 20 NE BQP.


SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY

A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ADDED FROM SOUTH TO SOUTH CENTRAL TX---EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST TX---SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA.
HEIGHT FALL EJECTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FLOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.  PW VALUES IN THIS INFLOW AXIS WILL BE RISING
SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST TX---SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY---WITH PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.5+
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN IN THIS AXIS.  WHILE THERE ARE
THE USUAL SHORTER TIME FRAME DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE LATEST
MODEL SUITE---THERE IS A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS--WHERE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT--SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN
A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD---BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE
PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY.  IN THE AREAS OF
TRAINING---ISOLATED SHORT TERM PRECIP TOTALS OF 1-2"+ AND ISOLATED
 STORM TOTALS OF 2-4"+ POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC
$$




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