Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 060357
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1156 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015

...VALID 03Z WED MAY 06 2015 - 00Z THU MAY 07 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 N PRX 25 NE GGG 25 E LFK 10 WSW IAH 30 WNW VCT 20 ESE ERV
20 WSW MWL 15 SSW 1F0 35 N PRX.



...CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...

WITHIN A BROAD DEVELOPING REGION OF FAVORABLE GULF INFLOW...A
CONCENTRATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAD MATERIALIZED IN THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY. TRENDS IN THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE PERHAPS EXPANDING AND / OR MIGRATING TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION
NUMBER 0055 AND RECENT NESDIS SPENES MESSAGE FOR DETAILS. LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL NOT ENTIRELY
DISSIPATE...AND THERE ARE SOME MODEL SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN TO
EITHER CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP FARTHER INTO EAST / SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WEDNESDAY. A FULL DISCUSSION OF THIS POTENTIAL WILL FOLLOW IN THE
UPCOMING 06Z ISSUANCE OF THE NEW DAY 1 OUTLOOK.


...OKLAHOMA...

MODERATE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WAS GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE SHORT TERM FLASH
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW...THIS RAIN WILL PRE-CONDITION THE
SOIL TO BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO PRODUCING RUNOFF SHOULD HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOP OFF THE DRYLINE WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN THE NEAR TERM...THE
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SHIFTED DOWN INTO
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...BUT WILL LIKELY MAKE A REAPPEARANCE FROM WEST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OK WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE OF THE NEXT DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

BURKE
$$




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