Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 170651
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...VALID 06Z FRI APR 17 2015 - 12Z SAT APR 18 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NNW KCRH KGVX 15 SSW PKV 45 NW RKP 40 ESE SSF 62H 15 WNW UTS
25 SE LFK ACP 15 NE BTR 25 N HSA 30 NNE BIX 15 NNE MOB
30 WNW NSE 15 WSW HRT 40 SSE NPA 10 NE KVOA 15 WSW RAM
15 SSE KDLP 25 W 9F2 15 NE SRN 15 NNW KCRH.


...GULF COAST STATES...

THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM IS EXPECED TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN THIS
PERIOD..AND ESPECIALLY SO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT..AS A
COUPLE OF RATHER WELL DEFINED S/WVS WITHIN THIS STREAM PULL INTO
TX AND THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAKER IMPULSE IN THIS SUBTROPICAL STREAM COMING INTO
WESTERN MEXICO AT THIS TIME..WITH A STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAJA.  FOR THE MOST PART..THE MODELS PICK
UP ON THESE FEATURES..BRINGING THEM RATHER RAPIDLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.  AHEAD OF
THESE IMPULSES..A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES SOMEWHAT..UP
TO 30-35KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT..WHICH BRINGS IN PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.75
INCHES INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TX AND SOUTHERN LA.  EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AHEAD OF THESE
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSES AND THE ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND PWS..LEADING TO SOME HEAVY TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TX INTO SOUTHERN LA AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN MS.  IN A GENERAL SENSE..THE MODEL QPFS ARE SIMILAR IN
INDICATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME HEAVIER RAINS FROM EASTERN TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY..ALTHOUGH THEY ARE LESS AGREEABLE AS TO
WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF RAINS WILL OCCUR.  STUCK CLOSE TO AN
ARW..NMMB AND WRF/NSSL COMPROMISE..KEEPING THE HEAVIER RAINS NEAR
THE MID/UPPER TX COAST AND THE LA COAST..WHERE SOME 1-2 INCH RAINS
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND SOME 2-4 INCH TOTALS
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE.


...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED HEAVIER
RAINS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOURS..MAINLY PRODUCED BY POTENTIAL TRAINING OF
CELLS WITHIN DEVELOPING NORTH-SOUTH CONVECTIVE LINES.  MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED THIS REGION ON AN INCREASINGLY PERSISTENT 20-30KTS
OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET..WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER DIFLUENT FLOW PATTERN.  LOCATIONS FROM THE EASTERN TX AND OK
PANHANDLES OUT INTO CENTRAL OK AND UP INTO CENTRAL KS SEEM MOST
PRONE TO SOME ISOLATED RUNOFF PROBLEMS CAUSED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME 1-2 INCH RAINS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO.

TERRY
$$




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