Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 261327
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
926 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

...VALID 15Z SUN APR 26 2015 - 12Z MON APR 27 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 WSW CAO 15 NW TAD 15 WNW PUB COS 25 WNW LHX 10 E SPD
20 SE LBL 10 ESE WDG 15 ENE MLC LBR 15 E TRL 25 SW GDJ
30 WNW SEP 50 S F05 40 WNW CDS 30 WSW CAO.


15Z UPDATE...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST AREA AND REASONING.  SULLIVAN

...SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

STRONG SIGNALS FROM THE MODELS FOR AREAS OF HEAVY...POTENTIALLY
EXCESSIVE...RAINFALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM HIGH PLAINS
E-SE ACROSS EITHER SIDE OF THE RED RIVER DURING THE DAY 1
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD (THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z MON). THE DEEP...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING N-S ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST EARLY
WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD...LEADING TO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE...WITH INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW COMBINING WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE
MID MS VLY LEADING TO ROBUST DEEP LAYER UVVS LATE IN THE PERIOD
(00-12Z MON) ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. MEANWHILE...THE INCREASING
LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK S TO N
PROGRESSION OF THE PW AXIS OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES CLIMBING TO
1-1.5+ INCHES. DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT (2000-3000 J/KG...SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY)...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME DIMINISHING TO UNDER
500 J/KG OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND AOB 1000 J/KG NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER AFTER 00Z. AT ANY RATE...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG
DYNAMICAL SIGNAL WITH SUFFICIENT (ALBEIT NOT AS ROBUST)
THERMODYNAMICAL PROFILE WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY
AFTER 00Z AS THE INCREASING S-SE-E LOW LEVEL INFLOW ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE LEADS TO INCREASED UPWIND
PROPAGATION AND POTENTIAL FOR CELL TRAINING. A MULTI-MODEL BLEND
OF 1-2+ INCHES OF AREAL AVERAGE QPF IS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA...HOWEVER PER THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE...LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 3-5+ INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS (RECENT REDUCTION IN FFG)...THESE AMOUNTS WOULD
MOST CERTAINLY LEAD TO SHORT TERM RUNOFF ISSUES.

HURLEY

$$





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