Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 240258
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1057 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

...VALID 03Z FRI APR 24 2015 - 00Z SAT APR 25 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NE BQP 35 ESE BAD 10 SSE OCH 10 WSW UTS 15 SE PKV 30 E KRP
30 NNE HRL 10 W HRL 10 W MFE 55 SSW HBV 15 S MMNL 45 WNW LRD
20 NW MMPG 20 NE JCT 20 SSE 7F9 25 SSE SEP 10 WNW INJ 20 SE GVT
20 W OSA 20 E TXK 30 NNW ELD 15 NW GLH 15 S GLH 30 SSW GLH
20 NE BQP.


SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY

03Z UPDATE...
EXPANDED SLIGHT RISK AREA SWD ACRS SRN TX TO ACCOUNT FOR POTNL MCS
DVLPMENT OVERNIGHT HINTED BY 12Z EC AND SEVERAL RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR.  WHILE THE HRRR APPEARS A BIT QUICK TO SHOW DVLPMENT OVER S
TX THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS DO SEEM TO BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT THERE OVERNIGHT AS ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
LEAD AN INCREASE OF SFC DPS INTO THE MID AND IN SOME CASES UPR
70S.  SOME STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DVLP OFF THE MTNS OF NRN MEXICO
AND WHILE NO DISCERNIBLE S/WV WAS NOTED WITHIN THE STG SUBTROPICAL
JET OVER MEX...THE STG ANTICYCLONIC NATURE OF THE UPR FLOW COUPLED
WITH IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND THERMO PROFILES SUGGEST STORMS
COULD CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS EVENING ACRS NRN MEX INTO S TX...INTO
PSBL MCS.  PWS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES WITH EVENING
SOUNDING DATA AT CORPUS CHRISTI INDICATING VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WITH LIS AROUND -10 AND CAPE OF NEAR 3500 J/KG...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT SOME VERY INTENSE CONVECTION WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  ACRS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST
REASONING.

SULLIVAN


PREVIOUS FCST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ADDED FROM SOUTH TO SOUTH CENTRAL TX---EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST TX---SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA.
HEIGHT FALL EJECTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FLOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.  PW VALUES IN THIS INFLOW AXIS WILL BE RISING
SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST TX---SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY---WITH PW ANOMALIES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 TO 2.5+
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN IN THIS AXIS.  WHILE THERE ARE
THE USUAL SHORTER TIME FRAME DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE LATEST
MODEL SUITE---THERE IS A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS--WHERE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT--SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN
A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD---BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE
PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS SLIGHTLY.  IN THE AREAS OF
TRAINING---ISOLATED SHORT TERM PRECIP TOTALS OF 1-2"+ AND ISOLATED
 STORM TOTALS OF 2-4"+ POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.