Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 150705
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...VALID 06Z WED APR 15 2015 - 12Z THU APR 16 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 E TOI 30 S LSF 20 NNW ABY 10 S ABY 20 ENE BGE 10 SE BGE
25 SE MAI PFN 30 S DTS 40 NNE KVOA 20 N KVKY 1B7 AXO 10 WSW 2GL
15 SSE P92 10 NE SRN 15 WNW KVNP 20 NNW KVNP 7R4 10 NE ARA
30 ENE ARA 25 SSE BTR 20 SW HDC 15 NW ASD 15 NNW HSA 30 NNW PQL
40 WNW GZH 20 SW MGM 20 NW TOI 30 E TOI.


CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE FL PANHANDLE

A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
INTO THE FL PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CONTINUED STREAM OF
SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WEDNESDAY.  MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---UPWARD TO 2 TO 2.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN EARLY IN THIS PERIOD---EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES.  WHILE THERE IS A
LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING---THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION/HEAVY RAINS IN THIS STREAM AS UVVS ARE
ENHANCED AHEAD OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES.  WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVING LOWERED FFG
VALUES---THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK OF ADDITIONAL RUNOFF
ISSUES WEDNESDAY FROM SHORT TERM PRECIP TOTAL OF 1"+ ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE FL PANHANDLE REGION. THE PREVIOUS
SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS EXPANDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE LOWER FFG
VALUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA---INTO FAR
SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

ORAVEC
$$




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