Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 140702
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
302 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

...VALID 06Z TUE APR 14 2015 - 12Z WED APR 15 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SE FTK 50 ENE LEX 15 WNW HTS 10 SW 3I2 25 SSE PKB 20 WNW CKB
15 SSW MGW 30 SSE MGW 20 NW W99 15 NNE W99 30 S CBE 15 W OKV
25 WSW OKV 25 ESE W99 20 NNW SHD 30 E HSP 25 NE ROA ROA 20 N UKF
10 N UKF TNB 15 WSW TNB 20 SSE TRI 25 SW TRI 25 NE TYS 20 W CSV
30 E MQY 10 W BNA 45 SW HOP 45 SSE PAH 30 SSE PAH 15 SE PAH
30 E M30 20 SE OWB 20 SE FTK.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 WSW MGM 10 NW CEW 15 WSW HRT 30 SSE JKA 10 W KVKY
20 SSE KDLP 10 NNW KMDJ 10 S S58 25 NE XCN KGHB 15 SE 3B6
10 E W60 20 S KCRH 15 SE KCMB 10 ENE ARA 15 NE MCB 15 SSE NMM
40 E NMM 50 SSE TCL 35 WSW MGM.


NORTHERN TN---CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN KY INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS


THE PREVIOUS BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WAS DECREASED IN SIZE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE WELL DEFINED MCV OUT OF THE LOWER MS/LOWER
TN VALLEY REGION.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO MOST OF TUESDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  PW VALUES IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE MCV WILL REMAIN MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE---2 TO 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN---SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AND RUNOFF
RISKS.  GREATEST THREAT OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG VALUES LIKELY
OVER THE UPPER TN VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WHERE FFG VALUES ARE LOWER AND INCREASED INSTABILITY LATER TUESDAY
MAY ENHANCE PRECIP RATES ACROSS THESE REGIONS.

CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION

A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ALSO MAINTAINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION THIS PERIOD.  ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTH TX REGION
EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN THE SOUTH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF--RAISING PW VALUES BACK TO MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION.  WITH UVVS
EXPECTED TO RE-ENHANCE AHEAD OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS IN THE ABOVE
AVERAGE PW AREA---ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN TO
SOUTHEASTERN LA---NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
REGION AND SOUTHEAST.  THE THE HI RES GUIDANCE IS ESPECIALLY
EMPHATIC ABOUT THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE
REGIONS---WITH ISOLATED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 2-4"+
POSSIBLE WHICH WILL POSE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF ISSUES OVER AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS RECENTLY.

ORAVEC
$$




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