Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 241825
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

...VALID 18Z FRI APR 24 2015 - 00Z SUN APR 26 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
IRK 30 NE MCI 20 WNW MCI 30 NNW TOP 30 SW FNB 15 SSE AFK CSQ
10 SW TNU 10 W CID 15 E MUT 15 ESE BRL 20 SW EOK IRK.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 S LIT 20 ENE OLV 15 N MDQ 20 E DNN 15 ENE GVL AHN 15 NW CCO
20 SSE EET 15 SW MEI 30 S JAN 40 SSE TVR 40 SW MLU 20 S SHV
10 E JSO 40 NE LHB 10 SSE 11R 30 N VCT 20 WNW VCT 15 N ALI
15 ENE LRD 15 NNW LRD 45 SSE MMPG 20 WSW UVA 25 W ERV 20 NW T82
15 W 6R9 20 WNW 05F 15 W GDJ 10 ENE MWL 15 NW 1F9 30 WNW GLE
15 SSE AQR 15 S LIT.


...SOUTHERN PLAINS EWD ACRS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS AND TN
VALLEYS...

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH MID/UPR LEVEL LOW LIFTING NEWD THRU THE
CNTL PLAINS INTERACTING WITH VERY MOIST PLUME OF MSTR..IE PWS
GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES..WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MDT TO HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINS ACRS MUCH OF ERN TX ACRS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND SE STATES THIS PD.  SATL/RADAR ALREADY SHOWING
EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CELLS DVLPG ACRS NCNTL/NW TX ALONG LEADING
HEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF WEAK DRY LINE.  THESE STORMS SHOULD
GROW EWD DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 1 PD ACRS NE TX INTO
DEEPER MSTR PLUME/LOW LEVEL JET.  EXPECT THE STGR STORMS TO
ORGANIZE INTO GENL E/W BANDS AS 85H FLOW SLOWLY VEERS TOWARD A
MORE WSWLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
LIKELY GENLY PROPAGATING EWD ACRS SRN ARKANSAS/NRN LA EWD INTO NRN
MS/NRN AL OVERNIGHT.    12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH IDEA OF ORGANIZED E/W HEAVY RAIN AXIS ACRS THE
SOUTH BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE N/S DIFFERENCES WITH THE AXIS.
OF THE HI RES GUIDANCE...THE NSSL WRF IS WELL SOUTH OF ALL THE
GUIDANCE AND EARLY THOUGHTS ARE IT IS DVLPG ACTIVITY TOO FAR SOUTH
INITIALLY...SO IT WAS GIVEN THE LEAST WEIGHT. OTHERWISE...
TRAINING OF CELLS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
ACRS NE TX INTO SRN ARK/NRN LA/NRN MS...GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL BOOST
TO THE LOW LEVEL JET LIKELY PRODUCING ISOLATED HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES OF 2"+ INCHES WITH LOCAL STORM TOTALS OF IN EXCESS OF 4
INCHES.

...NE KS/SRN IA/NRN MO/WRN IL...

HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS FOR PSBL SUBTLE
HEAVY RAIN EVENT FRI NIGHT/SAT ACRS THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. TO THE
NORTH OF THE POTENTIAL QPF MAX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION...UVVS WILL BE STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED MID/UPR LEVEL CIRC.  SOME HEAVY SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE
CELLS ARE LIKELY NORTH OF DVLPG 7H CIRC AS MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN DVLPG WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACRS PARTS OF
MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY LINGERING THROUGH MIDDAY SAT BEFORE SYSTEM
UNDERGOES RAPID SHEARING UNDER DOWNSTREAM REX BLOCK SET UP.  WHILE
WELL REMOVED FROM DEEPER MSTR TO THE SOUTH...MODEST PWS AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL CIRC ITSELF COULD LEAD TO A STRIPE OF 1
TO 2 INCH PLUS RAINS IN THE COMMA HEAD AND NEAR MID LEVEL COLD
POOL.  ISOLD HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE PSBL LEADING TO SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINS WHERE NEAR STATIONARY BANDS/CELLS DVLP.
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED FROM NE KS ACRS NRN MO/SRN IL INTO
PARTS OF CNTL IL.

SULLIVAN
$$





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