Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 040207
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1007 PM EDT SUN MAY 03 2015

...VALID 03Z MON MAY 04 2015 - 00Z TUE MAY 05 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.

...DISCUSSION...
...EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
INITIATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF THE
EVENT...HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED...WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES FAVORING SUPERCELLS PER THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLOOK. BUNKERS MOTION FOR RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS IS
PREDICTED AT ONLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVER SE NM AND SW TX BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z. THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
BUT WITH MARGINAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...NO APPRECIABLE
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE...IT APPEARS ANY
ORGANIZED RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK WHEN CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO GROW
UPSCALE AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW INCREASES.

BURKE
$$




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