Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 171204
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
803 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...VALID 12Z FRI APR 17 2015 - 12Z SAT APR 18 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 WSW HRT 40 ENE KVOA 40 NNE CYD 15 SSE SRN 40 SE KXIH KGVX
15 SSW PKV 45 SE SSF BAZ 25 WSW LHB 15 WSW OCH 35 NW POE
35 NW BTR 30 N HSA 30 NNE BIX 15 NNE MOB 30 WNW NSE 10 WSW HRT.


...GULF COAST STATES...

THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS A COUPLE OF RATHER WELL DEFINED S/WVS
WITHIN THIS STREAM PULL INTO TX AND THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKER IMPULSE IN THIS
SUBTROPICAL STREAM COMING INTO WESTERN MEXICO AT THIS TIME...WITH
A STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAJA. FOR THE
MOST PART...THE MODELS PICK UP ON THESE FEATURES...BRINGING THEM
RATHER RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD
OF THESE IMPULSES...A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
SOMEWHAT...UP TO 30-35KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH BRINGS IN PWS IN
EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TX AND
SOUTHERN LA.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AHEAD OF THESE SUBTROPICAL IMPULSES AND THE ACCOMPANYING
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND PWS...LEADING TO SOME HEAVY AND
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN MS.  IN A GENERAL SENSE..THE MODEL QPFS ARE
SIMILAR IN INDICATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME HEAVIER RAINS FROM
EASTERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY..ALTHOUGH THEY ARE LESS
AGREEABLE AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF RAINS WILL OCCUR. THE WPC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO AN ARW..NMMB AND WRF/NSSL BLEND...KEEPING THE
HEAVIER RAINS NEAR THE MID/UPPER TX COAST AND THE LA COAST...WHERE
RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES OVER 1-2 HOURS...AND TOTAL NEW RAINFALL
OF 2-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY.

TERRY
$$





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