Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 251324
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
924 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

...VALID 15Z SAT APR 25 2015 - 12Z SUN APR 26 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ENE DNV 35 SE ILN 20 NNW HSP 20 NE ROA 10 WSW UKF 40 E TYS
25 NNE CSV 20 S CUL 20 WNW SET 25 SSW MQB 15 ENE DNV.



...MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...

A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL EXIST ACRS THIS
REGION THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THOUGH PW AND MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES
WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST OVER THESE AREAS COMPARED TO FARTHER SOUTH.
NEITHER WILL THE INSTABILITY...AS MUCAPES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG
THROUGH THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA). AT THE SAME TIME...A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SWATH OF 1-1.5 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS PER THE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE OVER AREAS WHERE CURRENT FFG IS RELATIVELY LOW
(AND WILL LIKELY LOWER WITH TIME) WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF STEEPER
TERRAIN.

HURLEY/SULLIVAN
$$




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